Action Network's MLB best bets for Thu. 5/23, including O's-Chisox 

Mariners vs. Yankees

Thursday, May 23, 12:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Yankees -1.5 (+150, Bet365)

By Tony Sartori

It's a battle of the Luis' as Castillo takes the mound for Seattle against New York's Gil. I trust both guys and both have been tremendous thus far, but Gil has been more impressive.

This season, he outranks Castillo in wins, ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. New York's bullpen also outranks the Mariners' in ERA.

Not only do the Yankees possess the stronger pitching staff, but they also boast the superior lineup. Entering this matchup, they rank higher than Seattle in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Better starting pitcher, better bullpen, better lineup, home-field advantage, etc. There are a multitude of reasons to like New York in this game, especially on the run line, which is priced at +150.

Each of the Yankees' past 13 wins have come by at least a two-run margin. I'm betting they'll do so again here and would play it to +145.

Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+150)

Padres vs. Reds

Thursday, May 23, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Padres Moneyline (-110, BetMGM)

By D.J. James

Matt Waldron hasn't blown many hitters away this season, but that's because he primarily throws a knuckleball. The 27-year-old righty is one of a kind these days, but that knuckleball often comes with soft contact, which is why his peripherals are favorable. He ranks in the 75th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 80th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. His ERA is 5.00, but his xERA is under 4.00.

His opponent will be Frankie Montas and the Cincinnati Reds. Montas owns a 4.37 ERA and a 4.61 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 52nd percentile and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 29th. Waldron, somehow, has a better walk and strikeout rate, too.

Now, the kicker here is how much worse the Reds are against righties lately. Cincinnati owns a 66 wRC+ and a 26.7% strikeout rate, while the San Diego Padres have a 126 wRC+ and sub-19% strikeout rate.

In relief, the Padres own a 3.60 xFIP, which puts them fifth in the past month. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is right there with them at 3.64. Both bullpens walk less than 8% of hitters and strike out more than 24%.

All in all, Montas is currently worse than Waldron and tasked with a much tougher lineup. Waldron should get favorable results sometime soon, and that could start with one of the worst lineups against righties over the past month. Take the Padres from -110 to -130.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-110)

Orioles vs. White Sox

Thursday, May 23, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Orioles -1.5 (-152, FanDuel)

By William Boor

Not only do the Orioles boast both the better roster and starting pitcher, but they’ve also been solid on the run line this season as 23 of their 29 wins (79%) have come by at least two runs. Conversely, 27 of Chicago’s 35 losses (77%) have been multi-run defeats.

Baltimore will start Grayson Rodriguez, who has been dominant of late.

The 24-year-old righty gave up seven runs on 11 hits over 4 1/3 innings to the Angels on April 23, but hasn’t given up a run since. Over his past two starts, Rodriguez has twirled 11 2/3 innings, yielded just six hits and fanned 10.

The advanced metrics (3.15 ERA vs a 4.00 xERA) suggest a bit of regression may be coming, but I’m willing to bet on Rodriguez’s recent form.

Mike Clevinger start for the White Sox and although the sample size is small, his 7.14 xERA is atrocious. He’s given up eight runs (seven earned) over 11 1/3 innings in three starts this season and I have a hard time believing he’ll shut down a Baltimore lineup scoring just under five runs per game.

All signs point to the Orioles, so back Baltimore to cover the run line.

Pick: Orioles -1.5 (-152)