MLB best bets, picks: How to bet Phillies vs. Marlins, Braves vs. Mets

Phillies vs. Marlins

Sunday, May 12, 1:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+100, BetMGM)

By Bill Marzano

There is an old saying, "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and that's exactly my approach here. The Philadelphia Phillies own the best record in the league and show no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the Marlins own the worst record in baseball and aren't showing any signs of improvement.

Philadelphia has won nine of its past 10 and is averaging just under eight runs per game over its past eight contests. The Marlins have 31 losses on the season and 26 of them have been by two or more runs. There are several Phillies, including Alec Bohm (.455), J.T. Realmuto (.500), Edmundo Sosa (.400), Kyle Schwarber (.300) and Bryce Harper (.273), who have hit Braxton Garrett really well, so bet Philadelphia to go over its team total and score at least five runs..

Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (+100)

Braves vs. Mets

Sunday, May 12, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Bryce Elder Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Right-hander Bryce Elder takes the mound for Atlanta and should be a good fade candidate. Through three starts this season, Elder possesses a 5.28 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP.

His underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. The right-hander ranks in the seventh percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade Elder in the strikeout department as he ranks in the 13th percentile in chase rate and the ninth percentile in strikeout rate.

Those woes are likely to continue against New York, a team he possesses a 5.27 ERA against through three career meetings. Elder recorded three or fewer strikeouts in two of those outings.

Meanwhile, the Mets are one of the best teams at avoiding strikeouts this season as they rank fourth in strikeout rate.

Pick: Bryce Elder Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)