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MLB best bets: Picks, Predictions, Props for Fri. 7/26

Originally posted on Action Network | Last updated Jul 26, 2024 12:06 PM ET

Friday, July 26, in MLB is loaded with 15 games and a number of series featuring heated rivals, like Braves vs. Mets, Yankees vs. Red Sox, and of course, Dodgers vs. Astros.

Our baseball staff has come through with a couple of betting predictions for Friday in Major League Baseball — one moneyline pick for Reds vs Rays and a prop prediction for Dodgers-Astros. Check out our two MLB best bets for Friday below.

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Reds vs. Rays

Friday, July 26, 6:50 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Reds Moneyline (-110, BetMGM)

By D.J. James

Former first-round pick Shane Baz, who only has three starts under his belt in 2024, has been quite fortunate with his results as he has a 3.95 ERA vs. a 6.77 xERA. He has an Average Exit Velocity over 92 mph with a Hard-Hit Rate of 54.5%. His walk rate is putrid, as is his strikeout rate.

Baz throws hard, but the Reds have hit righties well lately so this doesn't look like the best matchup for the right-hander.

The Reds will throw Nick Lodolo, who has been solid with a 3.51 ERA and a comparable xERA of 3.42. He keeps the ball on the ground and has a better Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate than Baz. He also has an above average strikeout and walk rate.

The Reds hold a 120 wRC+ with a 7.4% walk rate and 24.2% strikeout rate against righties in the last month. The Rays have a 147 wRC+ with a 9.1% walk rate and 23.3% strikeout rate with those same parameters in place. However, the discrepancy between the two starting pitchers and the bullpens is massive.

The Reds have a bullpen xFIP of 3.70 with a sub-7% walk rate and strikeout rate over 24%. The Rays own a 4.05 xFIP with a similar walk rate and lower strikeout rate.

Pick: Reds Moneyline (-110 to -130)

Dodgers vs. Astros

Friday, July 26, 8:10 p.m. ET, Apple TV+
Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Houston hands the ball to left-hander Framber Valdez on Friday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate. Valdez has endured a turbulent campaign thus far, posting a 3.63 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 17 starts.

His underlying metrics suggest that we will see more of those bad outings over the remainder of the year. The southpaw possesses a 3.97 xERA and ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in xBA, Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate.

We are going to capitalize on this expected regression by fading Valdez in the prop market as he ranks in the 35th percentile in both chase rate and strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 5.5, a total that he has failed to surpass in 11 of his 17 starts this season.

These woes are likely to continue against Los Angeles, a team that ranks fourth in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.