MLB best bets: Predictions, odds, picks for Sun. 5/26 

Braves vs. Pirates

Sunday, May 26, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Martín Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Pittsburgh hands the ball to left-hander Martín Perez on Sunday, and he should be a good fade candidate. It's been a difficult start to the campaign for Perez, who is 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through 10 starts.

His underlying metrics are even worse, as the left-hander ranks in the 14th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade Perez in the strikeout market, as he also ranks in the 26th percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.

These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Atlanta. Through 51 career plate appearances against Perez, this current Braves lineup possesses a mere 13.7% strikeout rate and 17.2% whiff rate.

Pick: Martin Perez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 | Play to -105)

Giants vs. Mets

Sunday, May 26, 1:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Another pitcher to fade on Sunday is right-hander Logan Webb. He has been solid to begin the campaign, but his analytics suggest regression is looming.

Currently, Webb ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He has also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the seventh percentile in whiff rate and 31st percentile in strikeout rate.

Even if that expected regression doesn't come to fruition Sunday, he proved last month that he struggles with striking out this New York lineup. In April, Webb tossed eight shutout innings against the Mets in what was his best performance of the season.

Despite throwing the best his game has to offer, Webb still only recorded four strikeouts in that outing.

Pick: Logan Webb Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125 | Play to +120)

Giants vs. Mets

Sunday, May 26, 1:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Sticking in the same game on Sunday, we are also going to fade New York's southpaw, Sean Manaea. He is another guy whose surface-level stats don't align with the underlying metrics, suggesting that regression is right around the corner.

Manaea's 4.26 xERA falls far below his 3.11 ERA, and the rest of his profile is also troubling as he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in xBA and average exit velocity. Once again, we will head to the strikeout market to attempt to capitalize on this expected regression, considering Manaea also ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rate.

The left-hander has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in five of his past seven starts, and that is despite him out-performing his analytics. If Manaea gets chased early, which is possible against this solid San Francisco lineup, then I doubt he records five or more punchouts.

Finally, the Giants rank 10th in the league this season in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.

Pick: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to +100)