MLB best bets, props, picks and predictions for Fri. 8/9

Editor's Note: The Rangers-Yankees game scheduled for Friday was postponed. A traditional doubleheader is scheduled for Saturday.

Cody Goggin's Athletics vs. Blue Jays Best Bet: A's Should Get To Berrios

Friday, Aug. 9, 7:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Jose Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125, DraftKings)

By Cody Goggin

The Oakland Athletics aren’t a postseason contender by any means, but they are somewhat overrated offensively.

Despite its reputation as one of the league's worst teams, Oakland ranks 14th in wRC+ this season with an above-average mark of 101. It also ranks 20th in wOBA, 18th in SLG, and 11th in ISO.

Oakland’s biggest offensive problem has been striking out. They strike out 25.1% of the time, the third-highest baseball rate. However, they rank 11th in walk rate, so they aren’t entirely devoid of plate discipline.

The Athletics rank 12th in hard-hit rate, fifth in barrel rate, and sixth in exit velocity. When you subtract strikeouts and walks, Oakland ranks sixth in xwOBACON this season.

Their opponent tonight is Jose Berrios, who was once a really good starter but has declined in recent seasons. Berrios has a 4.11 ERA this season, which isn’t bad. However, Berrios has a 5.28 xERA, ranking in the seventh percentile.

Berrios has lost his ability to strike out batters, ranking in the 18th percentile in strikeout rate and 12th percentile in whiff rate. He also allows a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 17th percentile in exit velocity allowed, and 44th percentile in barrel rate allowed.

My favorite bet on this game involves backing the Athletics offense and fading Berrios. I’ll be taking Berrios over 2.5 earned runs allowed at -125, as I think Oakland stands a strong chance of scoring three or more runs on him in this matchup.

Pick: Jose Berrios Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125)

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D.J. James's Reds vs Brewers Best Bet: Cincinnati's Lineup The Difference

Friday, Aug. 9, 8:10 p.m. ET. MLB.TV
Reds ML (+120, DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Carson Spiers has been a great addition to the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation.

The 26-year-old righty has a 3.59 ERA against a 3.54 xERA with an above-average batted-ball profile. He only strikes out about 20% of batters, but he walks under 5%. He doesn't get hitters to chase or hit grounders, but he's an overall solid starting pitcher.

His opponent will be the Milwaukee Brewers and Aaron Civale. Civale is an average pitcher, boasting a 5.14 ERA and 4.28 xERA. But his batted-ball profile is worse than Spiers', and he can't keep the ball on the ground (35% GB rate).

The Reds have a 129 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past month, while the Brewers own just a 102 wRC+.

These teams are pretty comparable in the bullpen, but the Reds have a distinct edge in both starting pitching and in the lineup against a right-hander.

Look for Cincy to win this one, as they are undervalued.

Pick: Reds ML (+120)