MLB best bets: Props, picks, predictions for Tue. 8/6

DJ James' Diamondbacks vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Back Arizona On The Moneyline

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Diamondbacks ML (-103, BetRivers)

By D.J. James

The major gulf between these teams lies with hitting. Cleveland seemingly forgot how to hit. In the last month, they have a 75 wrC+ with a sub-7% walk rate and a 19.5% strikeout rate. For comparison, the White Sox are the only team worse against righties during the stretch.

The D-Backs are hitting righties well, with a 129 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate, and a 17.2% strikeout rate over the past month.

However, fading the much weaker lineup makes sense here.

Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-103)

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Alex Kolodziej's Angels vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Value On Over/Under

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 7:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 9 (-110, BetMGM)

By Alex Kolodziej

Scanning Bet Labs, windy games are popping up everywhere for Tuesday.

In fact, three games match one of our 55%-winning PRO Systems due to the unique conditions.

Angels vs. Yankees under the total in Tuesday's opener might fly under the radar, as it's the tamest of them all (6 MPH), but still matches our statistical criteria to set up a bet.

Check out PRO Systems for all the picks Tuesday — including the 17 MPH wind game fitting the model's thresholds.

Pick: Under 9 (-110)

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Tony Sartori's Orioles vs Blue Jays MLB Best Bet: Fade Chris Bassitt's Prop

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 7:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+136, Caesars)

By Tony Sartori

Toronto hands the ball to right-hander Chris Bassitt, and he should be a good fade candidate. Bassitt is 8-10 through 22 starts with a 4.02 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.

His underlying metrics are even worse. The right-hander has a 4.30 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA and walk rate. Specifically, we will fade Bassitt in the prop market as he ranks in the 17th percentile in chase rate, 13th percentile in whiff rate and 41st percentile in strikeout rate.

You can find his strikeout prop at 4.5 via DraftKings, with the under returning plus-money. Furthermore, Baltimore ranks ninth in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.

Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+136)

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Cody Goggin's Twins vs. Cubs MLB Best Bet: Bet Minnesota's Moneyline

Tuesday, Aug. 6, 8:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Twins ML (-108, FanDuel)

By Cody Goggin

The Twins and Cubs face off tonight in what should be a good battle between the two starting pitchers. Pablo Lopez will take the mound for Minnesota and face Shota Imanaga of the Cubs.

Pablo Lopez has been extremely unlucky this season. He has a 4.65 ERA but a 3.43 xERA. Lopez ranks in the 84th percentile in strikeout rate and the  87th percentile in walk rate. His batted ball metrics are slightly below average overall as he ranks in the 50th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed but 36th percentile in barrel rate allowed.

Shota Imanaga has been just as good in his rookie year, with a 3.09 ERA, 3.48 xERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. The left-hander ranks in the 67th percentile in strikeout rate and has just a 3.6% walk rate (97th percentile). He has struggled with contact, ranking in the 29th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 43rd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 53rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed. Imanaga also only ranks in the 10th percentile in ground ball rate, which leads to more damage on these batted balls.

While the pitching matchup is about even, I think the value lies in the difference between these offenses. The Twins rank fourth this season in wRC+, while the Cubs are just 20th. Minnesota also ranks top-five in wOBA, SLG, and ISO, while Chicago ranks 22nd, 23rd, and 20th in these categories.

As mentioned before, Imanaga doesn’t induce many ground balls. This is a bad matchup for him as Minnesota has the second-lowest ground ball rate in the league at just 39.5%.

Minnesota’s offense is slightly worse against lefties this season (ninth in wRC+), but I still think that the difference between these two offenses gives Minnesota an edge.

I like backing the Twins at -108 on the moneyline in a game that is viewed as being even, which I think it is from the pitching side, but Minnesota has a big hitting advantage that leads to me backing them.

Pick: Twins ML (-108)