MLB best bets: Reds vs. Braves prediction, odds, picks for Wed. 7/24

Reds vs. Braves Odds

Wednesday, July 24, 12:20 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Cincinnati Reds

Montas has struggled mightily this season, posting a 4-8 record with a 4.85 ERA and 1.36 WHIP through 18 starts. His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the 33rd percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, Strikeout Rate, Walk Rate, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate.

The right-hander enters this contest in particularly poor form, surrendering five or more earned runs in each of his past two starts. Montas is 0-2 over that stretch with a fade-worthy 9.26 ERA.

There were 11 or more total runs scored in each of those two outings.

However, the good news for Montas is that he may receive some solid run support. Cincinnati enters this matchup ranked in the top half of the league in runs scored per game.

Atlanta Braves

The Reds' success at the plate is likely to continue against Winans, who is currently only in the rotation due to Max Fried's injury. It is likely to be a short stint in the rotation, given how badly Winans got shelled his last time out.

The 28-year-old surrendered six earned runs on eight hits in just five innings of work. There were 20 total runs scored in that contest.

It's a small sample size, but his analytics were also poor in that outing as Winans posted a 5.85 xERA and .322 xBA. The other factor of that 20-run contest is that the Braves possess an extremely powerful lineup.

This season, Atlanta ranks in the top half of the league in SLG, OPS and home runs. That success is likely to continue against Montas, a pitcher whom this current lineup boasts a .286 BA, .429 SLG and .336 wOBA against through 38 combined career plate appearances.

Reds vs. Braves

Betting Pick & Prediction

There have been eight or more total runs scored in seven of the Reds' past 10 games and in three of Atlanta's past five, two trends I expect to continue in the first game of Wednesday's doubleheader.

Both starting pitchers have shown nothing to be proud of thus far. While Winans doesn't officially qualify, both pitchers would rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, Strikeout Rate and Barrel Rate. At the same time, both lineups are more than capable of producing runs.

The only reason this total sits at 7.5 is because both bullpens are strong and could potentially bail out these starting pitchers. However, I don't think that is reason enough to justify not taking advantage of the generous +105 payout on the over.

Pick: Over 7.5 +105 (ESPN BET | Play to +100)