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Seth Lugo takes the bump for the Kansas City Royals as they face the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Friday afternoon.
Lugo has proven to be a nice offseason pickup for the Royals, but his opponent, Reese Olson, has better peripherals and can keep the ball on the ground. The Tigers aren't going to crush the ball, but they have enough in their lineup to get past a veteran starter doomed for a letdown.
The Tigers, at home, hold betting value, so let's get to my Royals vs. Tigers pick.
Royals vs. Tigers Odds
Friday, April 26, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -104 |
8 -115o / -105u |
-1.5 +150 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -112 |
8 -115o / -105u |
+1.5 -182 |
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Kansas City Royals
Lugo has a sub-3.00 ERA, but his xERA is over 5.00. And while his walk rate is under 6%, he is only striking out batters 11% of the time. Pair that with an Average Exit Velocity that's a touch under 90 mph, and it's easy to see why he's primed for regression.
Offensively, Kansas City can hit righties. The Royals have a wRC+ over 100 and boast eight hitters with an xwOBA over .320 against right-handed pitchers. That said, the Royals also have an above-average ground-ball rate, which won't bode well against Olson, who thrives in that department.
The Kansas City relief staff is lacking — and that's underselling the struggles. The Royals have one of the worst relief xFIPs in baseball, so if Lugo gets bounced early, it could be a long game.
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Detroit Tigers
Olson ranks in the 82nd percentile in ground-ball rate. His strikeout rate and walk rate are below average, but keeping the ball on the ground against a team like the Royals can help.
His Average Exit Velocity is above 90 mph, but ground-ball pitchers can get away with hard contact more than others. He has yet to allow a homer this season, so he should keep it in the park against the Royals.
The Tigers have a sub-100 wRC+ off of righties, but do have several bats with an xwOBA above .310, which isn't too different than the Royals. Of course, Lugo is due for much more regression than Olson.
Detroit also has the better relief staff in this game with five arms with an xFIP below 4.00.
Royals vs. Tigers
Betting Pick & Prediction
Detroit should have an advantage in nearly every aspect of this game. The Tigers get to face the weaker pitching staff and Kansas City's offense hits the ball on the ground, which leans into Olson's most significant strength. Take the Tigers to -120.
Pick: Tigers Moneyline | Play to -120
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