MLB best bets: Who will knock off the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West?

NL West

Of all the divisions in baseball, this is the one we were looking forward to writing about most. Why? Because we've got a big, big surprise for you. 

The Dodgers have won the NL West two of the past three years and nine of the past 10, but don't go thinking Los Angeles is a lock once again to win the division. Yeah, we know LA was a ridiculous 54-22 against the NL West last year, but the Padres are arguably better than the Dodgers on paper, and Los Angeles has been decimated by injuries so far in spring training. 

Don't be surprised if San Francisco, Colorado and Arizona are all better than last year, too. Los Angeles ran away with the NL West, but we don't see that happening. No way. Expect a tight race all the way to the finish line in October. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are the consensus favorite (-125) to the win the NL West and we advise you to not put any money on LA to repeat as division champs this year. We're well aware the Dodgers led the league with 111 wins last year and have dominated the NL West over the last decade, but this is one the worst Dodgers team we've seen on paper in quite some time. We know games aren't won on paper, but this team is far from elite. And that was before projected starting shortstop Gavin Lux tore his ACL in spring training and pitchers Tony Gonsolin, Daniel Hudson got hurt in spring training.

This team lost so much during free agency — starting pitchers Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney, third baseman Justin Turner and shortstop Trea Turner — and we're not convinced they're going to have enough to overcome those departures. Designated hitter J.D. Martinez and relief pitcher Alex Reyes were solid signings, but unless LA makes a ton of trades before the deadline, expect this team to underachieve. And not by a little, but a lot. 

Win total: That's also why we're not taking the Dodgers to win the NL West or win 95+ games. This team's over/under win total is set at 94.5, and we're all about the under (-110). Dave Roberts has his work cut out for him, and to be honest, we recommend you drop some money, not a lot, but a little on the Dodgers to miss the playoffs (+600) too. If LA makes the playoffs, expect it to be via the Wild Card, and not the top seed either. With so many guys on the IL right now, we're scared the injury bug is never going to completely go away this year, leaving the already thin Dodgers in trouble near the end of the regular season. And if MVP caliber players Mookie Betts or Freddie Freeman goes down ... forget about it. Big trouble all the way. Crazy to believe, but certainly plausible.

San Diego Padres

If Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't test positive for PEDs last year and was able to play in the postseason, San Diego might have beaten Philadelphia in the NLCS. But as they say ... could've, would've, should've. But 2023 is a new year and the sun is shining a little bit brighter in San Diego, at least for Padres fans. This team is stacked from top to bottom and our pick to win the NL West (+110). We already established how we feel about the Dodgers this year, and the team that should benefit most is San Diego. Don't go crazy now on San Diego, but we do give them the edge over the Dodgers and the rest of the division. 

Signing Xander Bogaerts in free agency was huge for the Padres because now they can put Tatis Jr. in the outfield and even DH him from time-to-time in order to preserve his health, and that's only going to benefit the Padres in the long run. More importantly, Juan Soto and Josh Hader, both of whom were acquired right before last year's trade deadline, should be more comfortable knowing they're not going to get traded, and that should only benefit them and San Diego in the long. San Diego's window to win the NL West isn't all that big, but there is a fairly large crack right now. 

Win total: San Diego's win total is set at 94 and we like the over (-110). We're not so sure it's going to take 100 wins to win this division, but it'll probably take at least 95. And even after losing Tatis Jr. late in the season last year, the Padres still won 89 games. If Josh Hader is his old dominant self, the back end of the rotation steps up, Tatis stays healthy, and Soto and Manny Machado perform to MVP form, the Padres are going to be really tough to beat. We already established how good this lineup is and the top of the rotation is already set with Blake Snell, Yu Darvish and Jose Musgrove. We get it, we kind of have a crush on the Padres. But can you blame us? They're stacked, and this is the year we see them making some major noise in the NL West and across MLB.

San Francisco Giants

Last season was certainly a disappointing year for the Giants after winning 107 games in 2021, but this team is more than capable of getting back on track in 2023. But it's going to have to start with the pitching, specifically the rotation. Anthony DeSclafani finished with an ERA over six last year and only made five starts, and if San Francisco is going to have any shot at getting back to the playoffs, they're going to need the right-hander to pitch like he did in 2021.

Same goes for Alex Wood. Wood was awesome in 2021, and really bad in 2022. If either pitch like they did last year, San Francisco is going to have a tough time consistently wining. It's no secret the Giants' bullpen is bad, but if their starters pitch better and can go deeper into games, the guys that don't pitch in high-leverage situations won't have to pitch as much, making SF significantly better. Offensively, expect about the same from the Giants as last year, and maybe a bit more power after signing Michael Conforto this offseason. 

Win total: We like the Giants, but we don't love them. We don't see them making the playoffs (-250), but we do see them finishing above .500, so take the over (-110) on their set win total of 81. Despite a 5-14 mark vs. the Dodgers last year, San Francisco still managed to win 81 games last year. We see San Francisco finishing closer to .500 head-to-head vs. Los Angeles this year, which makes the over of 81 the most logical play here.

Colorado Rockies

We feel really bad telling Rockies fans this but keep your expectations low for this season. The Dodgers might not be as good as they were last year, but we expect San Francisco and San Diego to be, and same goes for Arizona. But we'll get to the D-Backs later. Colorado will always have the luxury of a hitter-friendly stadium, but they'll also always have to deal with opposing teams thriving offensively in their own back yard. 

Colorado shouldn't struggle to score, but they're going to give up some runs. The bullpen was the worst in all of baseball last year and it's not all that much better than it as a year ago. Same goes for the starting rotation. It's not very good. It's hard to when you struggle on the mound, and we see the Rockies pitching only being a little bit better than it was last year.

Win total: As expected, we're not taking Colorado to make the playoffs (-6000) but don't putting money on them to miss the postseason isn't worth it. There's no value with the line at -6000. The over/under win total is at 66 and we like the under (-120). The Rockies won 68 games last year, and like we told you, three of the other four teams in this division are better than they were last year, so someone's going to be on the losing end more than the winning end, and we see Colorado being that team. 

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona got off to a slow start last year, but people tend to forget the Diamondbacks weren't all that bad in the second half. The D-Backs finished below .500 in three of the first four months of the season in 2022, but they did finish four games above .500 in August. Last year could have been a whole lot worse than it was for Arizona. Losing Daulton Varsho over the winter was tough, but this club has some young talent in guys like Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy.

Problem is none of that young, promising talent is on the pitching end. And that's going to be what hurts Arizona in the long run. Veterans Madison Bumgarner and Zach Davies have struggled in their D-Backs tenure, and don't even get us started on the bullpen ... they were brutal last year.

Win total: The Diamondbacks won 74 games in 2022 and we expect them to exceed that total in 2023. The pitching is going to be what holds them back, but they should be better than were last year offensively. And believe it or not, they were in the top half of the league in runs scored. Carroll is a star in the making and expect Thomas and McCarthy to be even better this year, especially now that they have some veterans who can swing it like Evan Longoria and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Bet the D-Backs to go over (-110) the set total 76.5 wins. We could see Arizona being the playoff hunt next year, but not this year. They're not going anywhere but home once the regular season ends (-600).

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook