MLB best bets: Who's for real and who's not in the American League?

Least likely to win their division — The Texas Rangers. We're not intentionally trying to agree with the book, but we do agree with them here. Make no mistake about it, this is Houston's division for the taking. Don't think that's changed at all just because they're currently a game under .500 and third in the AL West. 

Don't get us wrong, Texas is a much-improved ball club from last year and we took them to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team at the start of the year, but we're still not taking them to win the AL West. Nope, we're not hopping on the bandwagon. 

Pulling three-time World Series champion manager Bruce Bochy out of retirement was huge for the Rangers, and so was signing Jacob deGrom, but this team still doesn't stack up anywhere close to Houston in terms of depth and talent. And to make matters worse, the Rangers are slowly starting to fall apart. No, not in terms of wins and losses — at least not yet — but injuries are starting to pile up for Texas. First Corey Seager, and now deGrom, who departed after the fourth inning of Monday's start against Kansas City with right wrist soreness. That's rough, real rough. And to be honest, depending on how much time deGrom misses, the Rangers' playoff hopes could slowly start to dwindle away starting on Tuesday.

Maybe Houston is experiencing "the good ole" World Series hangover, but we think it has more to do with missing All-Star second baseman Jose Altuve and veteran outfielder Michael Brantley. Both should be back by June, and once they are, look out. Houston's offense has struggled early on, but we see that quickly changing once these two guys are back in the lineup. Same goes for the bullpen, which ranks in the lower half of the league in runs allowed per game. It might take another month or so before Houston gets hot, but despite a slow start out of the gate, we see Houston winning 90+ games and winning this division by a minimum of five games. So, do yourself a favor and avoid betting on Texas to win the AL West. It's not worth it.

As for the team most likely to win their division, that would be the Minnesota Twins. No, not the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins. Crazy thing about Tampa is they started the season 13-0 and are 3.5 games ahead of the Yankees for first in the AL East. We don't know about you, but we thought that number would be greater. Plus, look at who the Rays have beaten ... the Tigers, Athletics, Nationals and Red Sox. The Blue Jays are the only team they've played that finished above .500 last season and look how that turned out. They lost two out of three. Obviously, Tampa doesn't make the schedule, but they've had one of the easiest schedules in baseball, if the not the easiest, and have taken full advantage of it. Let's see how the Rays do when they start playing some of the better teams in baseball. 

We're not saying Tampa Bay is incapable of winning the AL East, but it's much more likely Minnesota wins the AL Central than the Rays win the AL East. And the book agrees with us, too. We took the White Sox to win the AL Central at the beginning of the year, and what a mistake that was. Once again, Chicago can't stay healthy as Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada have already made trips to the injured list, and the bullpen has been absolute disaster, and we don't see it getting any better anytime soon. 

Meanwhile, last year's AL Central champs, the Cleveland Guardians, still have very little pop in their lineup and with the Twins pitching so well, it's quite clear the Guardians' pitching staff isn't way above the rest of the pack. We're well aware the Twins have had their offensive struggles too, but we see that changing real soon. It's just a matter of time before Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton find their stroke, and once Royce Lewis returns, look out. The former No. 1 overall pick was outstanding in a small sample size before tearing his ACL last year and he's expected to return at some point this season.

As for the Twins' starting staff, well, what isn't there to like? They've been great. Especially Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan. A little right-handed heavy, but that's OK. If Minnesota adds another reliever and quality bat before the deadline, the Twins may very well run away with the AL Central. So, put your money on the Twins to win the division now before the odds line drops below +100. 

**Odds via DraftKings**