Yankees vs. Mariners odds, picks, prediction for Thu. 5/23: Value on the total

Yankees vs. Mariners Odds

Thursday, May 23, 12:35 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York Yankees

Gil is developing into a potential ace right before our eyes. Through nine starts this season, the right-hander is 5-1 with a commanding 2.39 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.

He's been particularly dominant recently, allowing one or fewer runs in each of his past four starts. Gil is 4-0 over that stretch with a ridiculous 0.74 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP.

Based on his underlying metrics, Gil is likely to continue that domination as he ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and Hard-Hit rate. His success should continue against Seattle, a team he dominated in his lone career start against.

In that outing, Gil threw five scoreless frames while allowing just two hits. There were only two total runs scored in that game. Following the right-hander is a trustworthy bullpen that ranks second in the league in ERA and eighth in FIP.

However, this pitching staff may not get a ton of run support against Castillo, a pitcher whom this current lineup possesses a mere .156 BA, .244 SLG and .264 wOBA against through 110 career plate appearances.

Seattle Mariners

Like Gil, Castillo has put together a successful campaign thus far, boasting a 3.28 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP through 10 starts. There have been seven or fewer total runs scored in eight of those 10 outings.

Also like Gil, Castillo's underlying metrics are promising as he possesses a 3.23 xERA. That success is likely to continue against New York, a team he boasts a 2.84 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP against through five career meetings.

There were six or fewer total runs scored in three of those outings. Following the right-hander is a strong bullpen that ranks ninth in ERA and sixth in FIP.

However, run support has been tough for the AL West's first-place team. Seattle ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and stolen bases.

Yankees vs. Mariners

Betting Pick & Prediction

Both starting pitchers have been tremendous — both statistically and analytically. Meanwhile, both bullpens also rank in the top 10 of the league in both ERA and FIP.

That just leaves the two lineups. Seattle has been terrible, New York has been tremendous.

The Yankees' lineup is the only reason this total is at eight instead of 7.5. With that said, they possess a very poor track record against Castillo.

Pick: Under 8 (-108 at FanDuel) | Play to -115