MLB best bets: Yankees vs. Rays pick, odds, predictions for Tue. 7/9

Yankees vs. Rays Odds

Tuesday, July 9, 6:50 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York Yankees

Rodon has a 4.45 ERA and a 4.49 xERA. His ground-ball rate has dropped exponentially over the past few years. He also allows an average exit velocity over 90 mph and has a hard-hit rate in the 18th percentile. He has reduced his walk rate to under 7%, but his strikeout rate is a touch under 24% after being over 30% a few years ago.

The Yankees have only really hit well at the top of the order. Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are on the Injured List. Otherwise, the Yankees have a 105 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate and a 22.7% strikeout rate against righties since June 9. Only four Yankees have an xwOBA over .320 with those same parameters in place.

Additionally, New York's bullpen has struggled in the past month. The Yankees have a 4.05 xFIP with a 8.7% walk rate. They have multiple options to turn to after Rodon exits, but if Tampa Bay gets to Rodon early, there could be problems for the Yankees.

Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot, who has a 4.40 ERA and a 4.00 xERA, has been slightly better than Rodon this season. Like Rodon, Pepiot has an average exit velocity above 90 mph and a well-below-average hard-hit rate. He doesn't induce many grounders and his walk rate is a touch above 9%, but he gets hitters to miss and has a 27% strikeout rate.

Tampa Bay's hitters have also been more successful against lefties in the past month (131 wRC+). The Rays have six bats with an xwOBA over .320 xwOBA in the past month, so the lineup can hit better throughout and isn't solely reliant on the top.

The Rays have struggled in relief all season, but in the past month, they've fared similarly to the Yankees. They have a 3.99 xFIP with a 7.5% walk rate.

Yankees vs. Rays

Betting Pick & Prediction

Rodón looks like a shell of the fire-balling pitcher who used to strike everyone out and his off-speed pitches aren't what they once were. Meanwhile, Pepiot should be able to get through the bulk of New York’s order without many issues. Tampa Bay’s relief staff has had trouble all year, but New York’s has had its own issues lately. Take the Rays to win this one as they boast a more potent lineup and better pitching.

Bet Tampa Bay from +106 to -120.