MLB best futures bets: Will Yankees lead majors in homers again?

That’s a darn good question too. Home runs were down in 2022 — 12.2% to be exact — and most believe it had everything to do with the ball. Was the ball juiced in the past? Is the ball going to be exactly the same as it was last year? Only MLB can answer that. And would they answer that question 100% truthfully if asked? Your guess is as good as ours.

The Favorites:
Toronto Blue Jays (+400)
New York Yankees (+500)
Atlanta Braves (+600)

The Blue Jays are currently the betting favorites and we don’t understand why. Yes, Toronto has a ton of guys who can swing it — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Matt Chapman, etc. — but they didn’t even finish in the top five last year. In fact, they finished seventh. Jumping all the way up from seventh to first is unrealistic, especially with Guerrero Jr. on the shelf with right knee discomfort. And with a line of 4/1, there’s no way we’re touching that line.

The Yankees led the league in homers a year ago, and we promise we’ll talk more about them later. Judge’s record-setting season certainly had a ton to do with it, but this team has more home run power outside of Judge too. The line isn’t great at 5/1, but like we said, we’ll get back to New York later.

The Braves round out the top three and we feel like third is a good spot for them. The line isn’t excellent at 6/1, but it isn’t terrible either. Atlanta led the National League in homers last year and were second behind New York, and we’re confident they’ll be in the mix again this season. Especially if Ronald Acuna Jr. can stay healthy. However, that’s a big if.

Philadelphia Phillies (+1600)

The Phillies got hot at the right time, and nearly won the World Series. Regardless of falling just short, Philadelphia has a lot to look forward to in 2023. And in this case, Phillies fans can certainly look forward to a lot of dingers, especially after signing Trea Turner this offseason.

Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are more than capable of leading the Majors in home runs, and don’t sleep on guys like JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins and Alec Bohm. Each is capable of hitting 25 home runs or more.

You start doing some early math, that’s at least 200 total home runs, assuming each plays 100 games. Now of course injuries happen, but still, that’s a good number to begin with. The Yankees led the Majors with 254 home runs, and this team is more than capable of eclipsing that, however, they need to stay healthy.

Obviously, Harper had the whole elbow thing last year, and in order for Philly to even have a shot of leading the Majors in home runs, they’ll need him to play in at least 130 games. But with the DH now in the National League, that’s certainly realistic.

The best part about Philly is the line of 16/1. For a team with so many offensive studs, that line is super generous. The book clearly isn’t that high on the Phillies, but that could change, especially if they get out to a hot start offensively. This is worth putting some money on, but do it now, before the line drops.

Atlanta Braves (+600)

The Braves led the NL in home runs last year and were second overall, so there’s no way you can leave them off this list. Atlanta has finished in the top three in home runs three straight years, and we wouldn’t be surprised if they finish at least third again this season.

Similar to Philadelphia, the Braves have multiple guys who are more than capable of hitting 25 or more home runs — Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, Marcell Ozuna, etc. And better yet, they’ve got a couple who could hit 40 or more like Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr.

However, the Braves will need to find a way to replace Dansby Swanson’s production after Swanson signed a long-term deal with the Cubs in the offseason. Swanson hit 25 or more home runs in each of the last two seasons, and replacing him will be tough.

But don’t forget, it’s the Braves we’re talking about. They always seem to find guys who consistently hit home runs, especially late in the year. Harris’s home run totals should increase after hitting 19 bombs in 114 games, and if Acuna Jr. can finally stay healthy, he’s guaranteed at least 30.

Atlanta can’t lead the majors in homers unless Acuna Jr. plays in at least 130 games, and we’re not overly confident that he will. Ultimately, we see the Braves finishing no higher than third, and we suggest you stay away from Atlanta, especially with a line of 6/1.

New York Yankees (+500)

Why are the Yankees not the favorites to lead the majors in home runs in 2023? Please tell us. Well, we’re waiting.

We don’t get it either. But you’re not going to hear us complain. We love Aaron Judge and the Bronx Bombers to lead MLB in home runs again this season, but don’t wait too long. The line of 5/1 could drop, so get this bet in now.

The book must not think Judge is going to repeat last year’s AL single-season record of 62 home runs. And to be honest, we don’t think so either. But we do think he’ll hit right around 50. Could 12 home runs be the difference between New York finishing first or second in total team home runs? Absolutely. But we don’t expect New York to have a horrendous August like they did last season where they hit just 28 homers for the entire month.

That was a brutal stretch for New York, and we just don’t see that happening again this season. Plus, Giancarlo Stanton played in only 110 games last year and still managed to hit 31 bombs. If he can play an extra 20-25 games, he’s easily capable of hitting 10-15 more.

Anthony Rizzo is pretty much a lock for 30 home runs, especially with that short right field corner at Yankees Stadium, and Gleyber Torres is good for 20. This team has power and plays in one of the most hitter- friendly stadiums in baseball.

We hate to be so generic by picking the Yankees but they’re the most logical play here. This team is getting a bit older, which is somewhat concerning, but not enough for us to avoid picking them. Offensively, the Yankees have pretty much the same team as they did a year ago, and after leading MLB in homers last year, betting on NYY is worth it again. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? In this case, 100% yes.

Others to consider:
Los Angeles Angels (+800)
Houston Astros (+1000)
Los Angeles Dodgers (+1800)

Our Pick: New York Yankees (+500)

Bet $100 to win $500
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook