MLB best prop bet: Aaron Judge to repeat as Home Run Leader in 2023?

The weather is getting warmer, flowers are starting to blossom, and the snow is slowly but surely melting away. Winter is nearly over, and spring is so close we can almost smell it. Baseball season is right around the corner, and we've got another prop bet for you to wager on — who's going to lead MLB in home runs in 2023? 

The Favorites:
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+600)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (+1000)
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (+1000)

Aaron Judge ran away with the crown last year after setting an American League single-season record of 62 home runs, and unsurprisingly, he's the consensus favorite to lead MLB in home runs again this season. Judge knew he needed a monster year to get paid top dollar and boy did both happen. The Yankees made Judge a contract he couldn't refuse — nine years, $360 million — and also named him team captain. Considering the Yankees have had only 16 captains in franchise history, being named team captain might even be more impressive than his contract. Nah, who are we kidding. Judge hit the bank and deserves every penny.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. shared the MLB home run title with Salvador Perez two years ago and Kyle Schwarber led the National League in homers last year and finished second overall behind Judge, so both being favored behind Judge makes perfect sense. But look at how drastic the gap is — Judge is 6/1 and Schwarber and Guerrero Jr. are both 10/1. In case you're not a math savant, that's a pretty big gap. If you bet $100 on Judge and he led the league in home runs, you'd win $600; however, if you bet a $100 on either Schwarber or Guerrero Jr. and won, you'd win $1,000. 

Shows you how high the book is on Judge, right? And it makes total sense. Even after the All-Star break, Judge was a heavy favorite to win the MLB home run crown. The bigger question was whether or not he'd break Roger Maris' New York Yankees single-season home run record of 61 home runs.  

All three are worth betting on but we also see value in a couple of other guys too. And the line on the remaining players has even better value. 

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+1200)

There's no way you can make this list and leave Mike Trout off it. A healthy Trout is arguably still the best player in the game. Sorry, Shohei Ohtani — you might be the most versatile — but not even you are better than a healthy Trout. 

Trout has never led the league in homers, but he has hit 40 or more in three separate seasons, and two of them he didn't even play 135 games. Trout has had some really bad luck with injuries the last couple of seasons, but if he can play 140+ games — something he hasn't done since 2018 — he could lead the majors in home runs. 

Teams can't completely pitch around him thanks to Ohtani, and getting back a healthy Anthony Rendon should only make the Angels lineup and Trout that much better. And that's a good thing for Trout because he should get some much better pitches to hit. 

Trout only played in 119 games this last season, and still hit 40 bombs. That's insane. And if he could have played another 30, he might have been able to keep pace with Aaron Judge. 

Trout's health is the only thing that makes us wary of putting big money on him. No, not even Judge. Even after a historic 2022 season. And since Ohtani occupies the designated hitter spot when he's not pitching, Trout can't "rest" as the DH.  He pretty much has to play the field outside of a handful of games, increasing his chances of getting hurt again. His health is the ONLY reason why we refuse to bet the house on him to lead MLB in home runs. but betting some money on him is a must.

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (+1200)

We don't love the line on Yordan Alvarez at 12/1, but after a monster 2022 season, you have to strongly consider putting at least some money on him. Alvarez mashed a career-high 37 home runs last season, and at only 25, you have to think that number is only going to go up.

Excluding the 2020 pandemic, Alvarez has increased his home run total each year, and we expect that to happen once again this year. And best of all, as good as the Astros lineup was last year, it's even better this year. 

Houston re-signed Michael Brantley and signed power hitting first baseman Jose Abreu in the offseason. Plus, Houston still has Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman. That's a stacked lineup, and arguably the best in the majors. 

Teams cannot pitch around Alvarez no matter how hot he is at the plate simply because of how deep the Astros lineup is, and that makes Alvarez that much more likely to go deep. However, similar to Trout, Alvarez's durability is a concern. Alvarez has never played more than 144 games in a season, and for someone who usually serves as the DH, that's not good. 

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+600) 

The line at 6/1 is far from ideal, but considering Judge led the majors in homers last year, we'll take it. And here's something else, we like Judge to repeat as the home run leader again this year. Some may say now that he's got his big contract that he won't have that sense of urgency to perform, but we're not buying it. Judge knows being the captain of the New York Yankees comes with expectations, and we're confident he performs again this season. 

Now do we expect him to 62 home runs again this season? Absolutely not. But we do see him hitting at least 50, which should be good enough for the crown. Judge has power to all fields, and with a super short right field corner at Yankee Stadium, Judge should have plenty of opposite-field home runs that don't get out by much.

And similar to Alvarez with Houston, the Yankees have plenty of potent bats in their lineup — Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo, etc. — and that is only going to benefit Judge in the long run. Clearly Judge is the best of the group, but still, every hitter needs some protection — we promise we're not endorsing Trojan or any other condom brand. It's just that when you surround good hitters with other good hitters, it increases the likelihood they'll get more pitches to hit, and in Judge's case, more home runs.

And it's not like last year was a one-time thing. Judge hit a league-best 52 home runs in his rookie season back in 2017 and has hit 27 or more bombs in five separate seasons. Judge endured injuries in 2018 and 2019, but he's played in 148 or more games in each of the last two seasons. So, unlike Trout and Alvarez, durability shouldn't have you worried. 

Judge is certainly more than just a home run hitter, but clearly, he is a home run hitter too. We're betting big on Judge to repeat as the home run leader again this year and are confident 50 or more should do it for him. 

Others to consider:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+2000)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves (+2500)
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (+3000)
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (odds currently not posted)

Our Pick: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+600)
Bet $100 to win $600

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook