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Pictured: Luis Severino of the New York Mets. Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

MLB bets: Braves vs. Mets odds, picks, prediction for 'Sunday Night Baseball'

Originally posted on Action Network | By Doug Ziefel | Last updated 5/12/24

Coming into this series, many said that the Atlanta Braves have not been playing their best ball, and this would be the opportunity for the New York Mets to get back on track in the division. However, Atlanta has come into Queens and squashed all hope of that by shutting down the Mets lineup through the first two games of the series.

Tonight, things may take a turn in another direction, as the Mets will have the edge on the hill. They will give the ball to Luis Severino, who looks like the bargain of the offseason thus far.

Braves vs. Mets Odds

Sunday, May 12, 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Braves Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-126	7.5 -122o/+100u	-1.5 +132

Mets Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+108	7.5 -122o/+100u	+1.5 -160

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here

Severino will be opposed by righty Bryce Elder. Elder has yet to regain his All-Star form from 2023, and his outlook is not too bright for this outing either.

So, with the stage set, let's dive into our Sunday night baseball betting guide for the Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets.

Atlanta Braves

We may not see the Atlanta Braves' offensive explosion in this series, but be warned — it is coming. Despite being two games back of the Phillies entering this matchup, the Braves lineup has done their job, as they lead the majors in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate.

Their loud contact has yet to translate to power, as their xSLG is 21 points higher than their current batting average. While this should be an ominous sign for their upcoming opponents, I'm not as worried for Severino and the Mets tonight.

Severino has committed to generating outs rather than just pitching for strikeouts, and his main weapon for doing so has been his sinker. He is throwing his sinker 14% more than last year, and it has helped generate a 12% increase in Ground-ball Rate.

His arsenal of fastballs paired with his sweeper have made him very tough to square up, as shown by ranking in the 86th percentile in Barrel Rate. Keeping the ball away from the barrel is the key against this Braves lineup, so if Severino can execute, he should find success.

New York Mets

The New York Mets have been one of the unluckiest teams in baseball at the plate this season. They enter this game with a 23-point difference between their xBA and current team batting average.

Fortunately for them, tonight they face Elder, who has been unlucky and unsuccessful thus far. Like his counterpart tonight, Elder generates a ton of ground balls as he is a traditional sinker-baller.

However, Elder's command has not been great this season, and his mistakes caught up to him in his last outing. He walked four and gave up seven hits, which led to seven earned runs against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

While we should not expect another implosion from Elder, his mistakes in command could cost him again against a Mets lineup that is more than due for a swing in their favor.

Braves vs. Mets

Betting Pick & Prediction

The market has not taken a firm stance on this game because the talent and outcomes that are likely in this matchup both support each side.

However, if we cut the game in half, the Mets have the edge on the hill with Severino, as he can counteract the hard-hitting Braves.

On the other side, the jury is still out on whether Elder can rein in his stuff. With the Mets due for so much positive regression at the plate, they are the side to back here.