MLB betting: A look at the futures market for HRs

HR leaders futures

Pete Alonso +650

Alonso is a great bet for a lot of reasons. The first and most obvious is that he already has a three-homer lead on the field. Second, he is pretty close to Olson in durability. He has never played fewer than 152 games in a full season. Last, and certainly not least is that September has been his best power month in the majors. The fact that he is off to a fast start means he could be on pace for his best slugging year yet, better even than when he led the NL as a rookie in 2019. 

Shohei Ohtani +750

He is tracking for another MVP season with those combined hitting and pitching numbers. He hit 46 homers two seasons ago so we know there is a lot of power in that bat and he has been very durable the last two seasons — 150 games plus both years. Here is a possibly hot take: the Angels trade Ohtani rather than pay him. I think it could happen and if it does the chances he plays the last couple of months of this season in a pennant race and perhaps in a stadium better suited to him (Yankee Stadium, anyone?). At this price, he is definitely worth the risk.

Jorge Soler +1800

Soler has always had the power, it is the making regular contact thing that has given him problems in the past. He has his OPS over .900 for the first time since he led the AL in homers with 48 back in 2019. He does not hit cheapies, but the ballpark might not be helping him out as much as some others on these lists. Similar to Ohtani, it will be interesting to see how his season plays out. If the Marlins stumble and are trending down at the deadline he is their best asset and has proven he can fill that hired bat role well. He crushed for Atlanta on the way to their title in 2021. He could wind up helping somewhere, too.