MLB betting: ALDS best bets for Thursday, 10/10

Guardians @ Tigers under 6.5 (+100 BetMGM)

The Guardians and Tigers ranked first and third in MLB, respectively, in bullpen ERA in September, and they've kept that momentum rolling into the playoffs. Detroit's bullpen shut down the Houston Astros and limited them to just three total runs in two games, and it's coming off back-to-back shutout performances against the ice-cold Guardians. Bibee is back on the mound for Cleveland after holding the Tigers scoreless in Game 1. We like the idea of fading both offenses and trusting both bullpens again.

Yankees @ Royals over 4.5 first 5 innings (+110 FanDuel)

It's hard to trust the starting pitchers in this matchup. Gerrit Cole gave up seven hits and four runs against the Royals in Game 1, continuing his inconsistent season on the mound. On the other side, Michael Wacha has given up nine runs over his last three starts. New York and Kansas City combined for seven runs in the first five innings in the first matchup between these pitchers, and that was without Bobby Witt Jr., Aaron Judge, or Giancarlo Stanton recording a single hit.

Tommy Pham to record 2+ total bases (+175 FD)

Not many hitters love going up against Cole, but Pham sure does. In 37 career plate appearances against the Yankees ace, Pham is batting .361 and slugging .611 with three doubles and two home runs. This is a great matchup for Pham because Cole throws his 4-seam fastball 45.6 percent of the time. The Royals outfielder has a .311 xBA, a .544 xSLG and a 53.6 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this year.