MLB betting: Orioles vs. White Sox odds, pick, predictions for 5/23

Orioles vs. White Sox Odds

Thursday, May 23, 7:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Baltimore Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez will get the ball tonight for the Orioles.

He's looked the part of a budding ace to this point in his career. Through 40 innings pitched, he has a 3.15 ERA and 44 strikeouts. He ranks sixth among qualified pitchers in Stuff+.

His issues come from location, as he ranks just 57th in Location+, dropping him to 20th in Pitching+. While he’s in the 86th percentile in fastball velocity, 77th percentile in whiff rate, and 73rd percentile in strikeout rate, Rodriguez has an expected ERA of 4.00, which is high for someone with stuff this caliber.

This is because he has allowed plenty of hard contact. Rodriguez ranks in the 40th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 22nd percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and 37th percentile in average exit velocity allowed. He also has a higher-than-average 8.9% walk rate and ranks in just the 15th percentile in ground ball rate.

Luckily for him, the White Sox offense has been among the worst in the league.

The Orioles’ offense hits the ball harder than almost anyone else. They rank third in barrel rate, third in hard-hit rate, and second in average exit velocity. They rank eighth in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA this season. Baltimore also has the highest slugging percentage and ISO this year, but they are hurt a bit by having just a 6.9% walk rate, the league's second-lowest mark.

Chicago White Sox

Mike Clevinger will take the mound for the White Sox tonight.

He's in his second season with the squad and is off to a poor start, with a 5.56 ERA and a 7.13 expected ERA.

He has only managed an 18.2% strikeout rate and 30.8% ground ball rate, allowing a lot of balls to be put in play. Clevinger's batted ball metrics are pretty bad, but he has also only pitched 11 1/3 innings across three starts, so the sample size is still relatively small.

The White Sox have the worst wRC+ in the league by a long shot. They are at 74 while the next closest team is at 81. They also have the lowest wOBA, slugging percentage, and ISO.

It's safe to say that this is the worst offense in the league.

Their batted ball metrics are a bit better. They rank 26th in hard-hit rate, 27th in barrel rate, and 13th in exit velocity. These still aren’t extraordinary, but maybe there is hope for them that their .266 BABIP can positively regress.

Orioles vs. White Sox

Betting Pick & Prediction

The best matchup in this game is certainly this Baltimore offense against Clevinger.

While he will likely perform closer to his career average, it’s hard to ignore the numbers to this point. The Orioles are a tough matchup for any pitcher and will make him pay for any mistakes.

On the other hand, Rodriguez has some of the best stuff in the league but struggles with his location and allowing hard contact. The White Sox have had terrible offensive results this season, but their batted-ball metrics have been a bit better. Rodriguez should still have a good chance to shut down Chicago, but the White Sox should scrape together a run or two.

The Orioles are already heavy favorites, so while I would love to back them, this is already priced into the market.

Instead, I like the first half over.

As stated above, the Baltimore offense has a favorable matchup, but the White Sox may be able to score a couple off of Rodriguez as well. For that reason, I like taking over 4.5 runs in the first five innings of this game at even money.

Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (+110 | Play to -110)

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