MLB betting: Tigers vs. Braves odds, picks, predictions for Wed. 6/19

Tigers vs. Braves Odds

Wednesday, June 19, 12:20 p.m. ET, BSSO

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Detroit Tigers

Lopez is not as lethal as Skubal is, and his sub-2.00 ERA may not be sustainable, but the righty has a sub-4.00 xERA. He does have a tendency to allow flyballs and some hard hits, but he can miss bats. He owns a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. Since the Tigers have not hit the ball well, this should be all he needs.

The Braves have lost multiple key pieces to the lineup. In addition to the knee injury to Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris has now hit the Injured List. For the Atlanta hitters with 10+ plate appearances against southpaws in June, only three have a .320+ xwOBA. Much of the bottom of the lineup has been ineffective against lefties — Skubal will be an even bigger test. In June, the Braves only have a 101 wRC+ with a sub-5% walk rate. This will not help against the hottest pitcher in baseball at the moment.

The Braves have a collective 3.74 xFIP with a strikeout rate above 27% in the bullpen. They have six arms under a 4.00 xFIP, so even if Lopez has issues with walks and accruing pitches, they have the artillery to take down a relatively weak lineup from Detroit.

Atlanta Braves

Skubal owns a 2.20 ERA and 2.52 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 86th percentile, while his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 91st percentile. This is typically pretty hard to do, while throwing an average fastball of 96.6 MPH. Adding on, Skubal only walks 4.8% of batters with nearly a 30% strikeout rate. He is catching Atlanta’s injury-riddled lineup at the right time, so look for him to continue these successes.

The Tigers have not hit well in general. Against righties in June, they have a 77 wRC+, 6.5% walk rate, and 24.8% strikeout rate. They only have two batters above a .320 xwOBA with those same parameters in place, so even though Lopez has been fortunate in the early going, Detroit may not have enough to get by him early.

The Tigers’ relief staff has a 4.23 xFIP in June with a sub-9% walk rate. They do have four active arms under the 4.00 xFIP mark, though, so this could be more than enough, when Skubal exits. Since he has kept the ball on the ground and has gone at least six innings in each start but one this season, he will help the Detroit bullpen.

Tigers vs. Braves

Betting Pick & Prediction

Even though the total is low, take the under in this game. Skubal and Lopez have both been reliable. Skubal is the better of the two starting pitchers, but Lopez will notch some strikeouts and should give the Braves five-plus against a porous Detroit lineup.

Both bullpens should do the legwork in the latter innings to keep this under the total. Take it from 7.5 to 7.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 at FanDuel | Play to Under 7)

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