MLB futures odds: Guardians a lock in American League Central? Not so fast

Every team has +150 or better odds to win the AL Central, which tells us even the book is unsure who is going to win the AL Central. You can certainly make the argument that Kansas City and Detroit have improved on paper from last season, but they simply have too many holes to win this division. Chicago, Cleveland and Minnesota also have their fair share of weaknesses, but not nearly as many as the Tigers and Royals.

If there’s one thing you should remember, it’s this: If you like to put a little bit of money on multiple teams to win a particular division in order to increase your chances of getting at least some money back, this is the division to do it on. Why? Because Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota all have a pretty equal shot of winning this division.

Cleveland (+150) is slightly favored ahead of Chicago (+160), followed by Minnesota (+290). And to be honest, we’re really surprised in how wide the gap is between the Twins and the Guardians and White Sox. Minnesota stayed in the hunt for a while, but injuries and stretches of really bad pitching were too much for the Twins to overcome, however, we’re not so certain that happens again this season. Detroit (+2500) and KC (+4000) round out the division, and as we said earlier, they both should be better than they were last year, but they’re still a couple of years away from contending for the AL Central.

Kansas City Royals

To win the Division: +4000
Win Total: Over 69.5 (-110)/Under 69.5 (-110)
Key Returning Players: RHP Zack Greinke, C Salvador Perez, RHP Brady Singer, RHP Scott Barlow, IF Nicky Lopez, IF Bobby Witt Jr.
Key Additions: LHP Aroldis Chapman
Key Losses: IF Adalberto Mondesi, OF Michael A. Taylor

Kansas City finished a game back of Detroit for last in the AL Central in 2022, and expectations aren’t all that high for the Royals in 2023. On paper KC has a couple of former All-Stars – Zack Greinke and Salvador Perez – who are on the back end of their careers, and two budding prospects – Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinny Pasquantino – who had really nice rookie seasons in 2022, but if the Royals are going to take the next step forward, they’re going to need Pasquantino and Witt Jr. to be even better in 2023.

And most importantly, they’re going to need to find some answers in the starting rotation outside of Brady Singer. The Royals finished with the fifth-worst ERA in all of baseball a year ago, and if there’s any shot of KC shocking the world in 2023, guys like Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch will need to pitch a lot better this year. Scott Barlow was great as the team’s closer, and adding a reliever like Aroldis Chapman who has seen just about everything should certainly help KC, but this team still has a lot of holes outside of an improved bullpen.

Who knows, maybe first-year skipper Matt Quatraro is just the guy the Royals need to get this thing going in the right direction, but don’t expect a complete 360 in 2023. KC should be better than they were last year, just not good enough to win the AL Central.

Detroit Tigers

To win the Division: +2500
Win Total: Over 69.5 (-110)/Under 69.5 (-110)
Key Returning Players: DH Miguel Cabrera, IF Jonathan Schoop, IF Javier Baez, OF Akil Baddoo, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP Tarik Skubal
Key Additions: RHP Michael Lorenzen
Key Losses: LHP Gregory Soto

The Tigers spent a lot of money in free agency two years ago on shortstop Javier Baez (six years, $140 million) and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $77 million), and both couldn’t have performed much worst than they did last year in their first season in Detroit. Not only did Baez lead all of baseball with 26 errors in 2022, the former All-Star had his worst offensive season since he made his MLB debut back in 2014. Meanwhile Rodriguez made just 17 starts in an injury plagued season, finishing with a 5-5 record and an ERA just over four.

If Detroit is going to even finish around .500 in 2023, they’ll need both Rodriguez and Baez to perform like All-Stars. And the same goes for future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera and second baseman Jonathan Schoop. Detroit’s starting staff needs to improve significantly after finishing with the eighth-worst ERA in 2023. Michael Lorenzen definitely improves the Tigers’ starting rotation, but losing Gregory Soto to the Phillies in free agency definitely hurts. The Tigers' bullpen was by far and away the best part of last year’s team, and losing its anchor in Soto is an absolute gut punch.

We wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit finishes last in the division in 2023, so instead of even thinking about taking the Tigers to win the AL Central, take them to finish with under 69.5 wins. We know AJ Hinch won a World Series with the Astros back in 2017, but we’re not even sure Hall of Fame skippers like Joe Torre or Bobby Cox could get this club to finish .500.

Minnesota Twins

To win the Division: +290
Win Total: Over 81.5 (-110)/Under 81.5 (-110)
Key Returning Players: IF Carlos Correa, OF Byron Buxton, RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Jorge Lopez, RHP Kenta Maeda
Key Additions: RHP Pablo Lopez, OF Joey Gallo
Key Losses: IF Gio Urshela, IF Luiz Arraez

The Twins arguably made the biggest surprise of the offseason when they traded AL batting champ Luis Arraez to Miami for starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects. To be honest, they might regret this trade in the end, but they desperately needed starting pitching, and Lopez is a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter. And with the AL Central some what up for grabs, this deal makes sense for the short term, just not necessarily for the long haul.

However, offense hasn’t been the issue for the Twins. It’s been the pitching, particularly the starting rotation. Twins starters were in the bottom half of the league in ERA, and adding Lopez to mix, plus a healthy Kenta Maeda should make a big difference. Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray were solid in 2022, and they’ll need them to be just as good in 2023 if this team is going to win the division.

Re-signing shortstop Carlos Correa certainly has mixed feelings after failing a physical with the Mets and Giants in the offseason, and the Twins desperately need him to be healthy. Same goes for outfielder Byron Buxton and rookie utility man Royce Lewis.

So, if the Twins can stay healthy – we know, that’s a big if – and if the rotation is more consistent and Jorge Lopez and Jhoan Duran pitch like they did in 2023, the Twins could be scary good. Like 90+ wins good. However, we’re not convinced all that happens, and ultimately, we see them more as a Wild Card team.

Chicago White Sox

To win the Division: +160
Win Total: Over 83 (-110)/Under 83 (-110)
Key Returning Players: RHP Dylan Cease, OF Luis Robert, OF/DH Eloy Jimenez, SS Tim Anderson, RHP Liam Hendriks, RHP Michael Kopech,
Key Additions: OF Andrew Benintendi, OF Billy Hamilton, RHP Mike Clevinger
Key Losses: OF AJ Pollock, 1B/DH Jose Abreu, RHP Johnny Cueto

2023 will tell White Sox fans two things. One, Tony La Russa was the problem, or two, Chicago simply overachieved in 2021. La Russa might be a Hall of Fame manager, but he looked a little too old to be in a big-league dugout last year. So, the White Sox made finding a new skipper their No. 1 priority in the offseason, and decided to go with Pedro Grifol. Grifol won a World Series as a coach with KC back in 2015, and was the team’s bench coach the previous three seasons. Now how he does as a manager has yet to be seen, but chances are he can’t be much worse than La Russa was last year.

But you can’t put all the blame on La Russa. The White Sox had a myriad of injuries and really struggled offensively. Chicago drew the second-fewest walks last season, didn’t have one player hit 20 home runs, and really struggled to close out games in the later innings. That will need to change in 2023 if the White Sox are going to win the AL Central.

Plus, they’ll need Aaron Bummer to pitch like he did back in 2019, find a way to replace Jose Abreu’s bat in the middle of the order and leadership in the locker room, and potentially find a new closer as All-Star Liam Hendriks was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in January. Signing Andrew Benintendi certainly makes the White Sox lineup more dangerous, but this team will need a lot of guys to step up – Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Andrew Vaughn, Michael Kopech, etc. – if they’re going to win the division.

Ultimately though, we see the White Sox staying much healthier and winning the AL Central. Expect guys like Jimenez, Anderson and Robert to each have big years, maybe even career years, and lead the White Sox to the division title.

Cleveland Guardians

To win the Division: +150
Win Total: Over 87 (-110)/Under 87 (-110)
Key Returning Players: RHP Emmanuel Clase, 3B Jose Ramirez, OF Steven Kwan, RHP Shane Bieber, RHP Tristan McKenzie, RHP James Karinchak, IF Andres Gimenez
Key Additions: C Mike Zunino, 1B Josh Bell
Key Losses: C Austin Hedges

The Guardians won the division by 11 games last year, but they didn’t pull away for good till September. Cleveland went 21-8 in September, but up until the final 40 games of the season, Chicago and Minnesota were right on their tail. No matter who wins the AL Central this year, expect multiple teams to be in it till the end.

Terry Francona did wonders with this “small ball” club last year, but that might not be the team’s identity in 2023. Cleveland got a big bat in Josh Bell via free agency, and he very well could be the piece that puts Cleveland over the top. Will Cleveland hit for more power in 2023? Probably. But the bigger question is will they pitch like they did in 2022?

The Guardians finished with the sixth-best ERA in baseball, and the bullpen was a main reason why.  Closer Emmanuel Clase led all of baseball in games, games finished and saves, and seven different relievers made 35+ appearances and posted an ERA under 3.50. That probably won’t happen again in 2023, meaning the Guardians are going to have find different ways to win games.

Guys like Triston McKenzie, Andres Gimenez and Clase all broke out in 2022, and they’re going to need to be great again in 2023 if the Guardians are going to repeat as AL Central champions. Just like players, teams make adjustments, and now we’re going to have to wait and see how each of them respond to the adjustments teams make on them this season.  

We see the Guardians winning at least 85 games, but we’re not 100% committed to them on winning the division. Shane Bieber and Jose Ramirez are proven All Stars, but no one else on the roster has put together multiple all-star seasons. We know that’s because the majority of the guys on Cleveland haven’t been in the league all that long, but if one thing is certain, replicating multiple All-Star seasons is far from easy. Just ask Cody Bellinger, Matt Harvey or Joba Chamberlain.

Team to win AL Central: Chicago White Sox (+160)

Bet $100 to win $160

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook