MLB futures: Should Ohtani have such short odds to be NL MVP?

While his odds are favorable thanks to the two-time AL MVP's body of work, they don't take into consideration that he is coming off of his second elbow surgery. Ohtani was sidelined for the last month of the 2023 regular season because of a torn ulnar lateral ligament in his pitching elbow, the same arm he had Tommy John surgery on in 2018. And while Ohtani was able to rebound nicely from the first surgery, having the same dominance after a second one isn't guaranteed.

"It’s more complicated," New York Yankees head team physician Christopher S. Ahmad of Columbia University told the Associated Press back in September. "There’s issues with scar tissue. If there has been prior surgery to the ulnar nerve, that makes it more technically demanding on the surgeon because the nerve has to be dissected free again of scar tissue, moved out of the way, and then the reconstruction performed."

Ahmad goes on to say the success rate of a second Tommy John surgery has gone up to 60-70%. Of course, that's no guarantee his pitching will ever be quite the same.

That being said, Ohtani could still impress at the plate this upcoming season. He slashed .304/.412/.654 with 44 HRs and 95 RBI in his previous campaign, and there's no reason to think his plate presence will completely disappear.

As for whether he's the best bet at +650 for NL MVP? Maybe wait for the season to get underway. His new teammates Mookie Betts (also +650) and Freddie Freeman (+1200) may end up being better bets in the long run.