MLB home run props for Sept. 23: Cravin' for a Pavin dinger

It's a brand new week in home run props, and we're looking to kick it off with a bang. Even though there are only four games on the shortened MLB slate, we're still honing in on three home run bets we love for Monday night's action. 

Bryce Harper (+370 DraftKings)

Harper has been a streaky hitter all season, so you want to back him when he's feeling confident at the plate. Well, the Philadelphia Phillies slugger is slugging .540 with eight extra-base hits, a 51.4 percent hard-hit rate and a 45.9 percent fly-ball rate over the last 15 days. The Chicago Cubs are rolling with a bullpen game on Monday night. With no specific hitter-pitcher matchup to target, we'll take the hottest power hitter in Philly's lineup at a fair price. 

Kyle Tucker (+340 FanDuel)

Tucker returned to the lineup earlier this month and didn't waste any time getting back in the swing of things (no pun intended). Since coming off the injured list, the Houston Astros slugger is batting .378 and slugging .622 with three home runs in 14 games. Tucker is only getting hotter, too, as he's 8-12 with two home runs over his last three games. Seattle Mariners starter Bryce Miller ranks in the 13th percentile in barrel rate (9.9 percent) this season, and Tucker's only hit in seven career at-bats against him was a home run. 

Pavin Smith (+750 FD)

Smith is one of the hottest hitters in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, as he's batting .317 and slugging .667 with five home runs in his last 22 games. This is also a perfect setup for him against Hayden Birdsong. The San Francisco Giants right-hander ranks in the first percentile in hard-hit rate (49.7 percent) because he throws his 4-seam fastball 44.0 percent of the time. Smith is batting .400 and slugging .857 with a 58.1 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.