Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper. Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

MLB home run props for Thu. 6/27: You won't believe this price on Bryce

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Jun 27, 2024 11:51 AM ET

It's been a lonely week for us in home run props, as we went 0-2 with yet another rainout on Wednesday night. Let's find a reason to celebrate with a three-pack of HR bets for Thursday's MLB slate.

Willson Contreras (+330 FanDuel)

Reds at Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET

Contreras returned to the St. Louis Cardinals lineup this week after spending nearly two months on the injured list, and this is a perfect matchup for him to get back in a groove. Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott has already surrendered 15 home runs this season, and he's giving up the sixth-highest fly-ball rate among qualified pitchers. Contreras is batting .333 and slugging .708 against left-handed pitching this season. He's faced Abbott only two times in his career, but one of those at-bats ended with a homer.

Bryce Harper (+440 FD)

Marlins at Phillies, 6:20 p.m. ET

This price makes no sense at all. Harper is on an absolute tear with five home runs, a .400 batting average and a .800 slugging percentage over the last 15 days. He's also batting .424 with a .939 slugging percentage and four homers in 33 at-bats against lefties this month. This price is only +440 because Harper is batting just .235 with no home runs in his career against Miami Marlins lefty Trevor Rogers, but we'll gladly buy the discount.

Aaron Judge — first plate appearance (+850 DraftKings)

Yankees at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET

Let's get creative with our final selection. Judge is the most dangerous home run threat in MLB, but his consistent HR price of +200 or worse isn't worth betting. Instead, let's target him to strike early at a much bigger price tag. Judge is batting .414 and slugging .897 with four home runs in his career against Toronto Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, and he leads the league this season with 11 homers in the first inning. This is worth a sprinkle for a fun, quick sweat.

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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