MLB HR props for Wed. 4/17: All things point to a dinger for Naylor

It's been a cold start to the week in home run props, but it only takes one winner to turn the week around. Here are the three HR props we're targeting for Wednesday's MLB slate. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (Game 2 +300 FanDuel)

Royals vs. White Sox, Game 2, 5:40 p.m. ET

The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are playing a doubleheader on Wednesday, so make sure you're betting this prop for Game 2 with Erick Fedde on the mound. Fedde has already surrendered five home runs in three starts, and he's allowing the seventh-worst expected slugging percentage among qualified pitchers. Bobby Witt Jr. has been a monster at the plate with the highest expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in MLB through 17 games. Witt is crushing right-handers this year, and Fedde is a perfect fade target for HR props. 

Nick Castellanos (+550 DraftKings)

Rockies vs. Phillies, 6:05 p.m. ET

Nick Castellanos has been abysmal to start the 2024 season. The Philadelphia Phillies outfielder is batting just .169 with no extra-base hits and 17 strikeouts through 18 games, which is a surprise considering he hit 29 home runs and a team-leading 37 doubles last season. The switch will eventually flip for Castellanos, and it could happen Wednesday night with Ryan Feltner on the mound for the Colorado Rockies. Casty is 4-7 with no strikeouts in his career against Feltner, so this could be the matchup that helps him break the slump.

Josh Naylor (+700 DK)

Guardians vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Boston Red Sox starter Tanner Houck has given up only four earned runs through three starts, but opposing hitters have been making solid contact against him. The right-hander ranks in the 13th percentile in average exit velocity and the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate. To fade him, let's roll with Josh Naylor, who leads the Cleveland Guardians in home runs (four), slugging percentage (.603) and xwOBA (.420) this season. Naylor has faced Houck only three times in his career, but one of those at-bats resulted in a home run.