MLB NRFI & YRFI Predictions, Picks — Friday, May 23

We had a much-needed winning day on Thursday, going 3-0 across three picks. Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going today.

I have three picks for a busy Friday slate.

Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.

MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 23, 2025

Brewers vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Paul Skenes

At this point, I would consider this NRFI more of a parlay piece since the line has gotten so steep.

I posted this bet last night in the Action App when Caesars had the NRFI at -140, but the market evidently agreed with my side.

However, I’m still showing value on the no here.

Paul Skenes has yet to allow a run the first time he’s faced a hitter in a game, a period that now spans 23.2 innings. It doesn’t seem likely that baseball’s 26th-best offense against righties breaks that streak.

Freddy Peralta is no Skenes, but he’s still very good, with a 1.96 ERA his first time through the order.

He also has an even easier matchup. The Pirates rank 29th against righties in terms of wRC+.

Rangers vs. White Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle vs. Sean Burke

This is an interesting one since the Rangers and White Sox have fairly bad lineups — they rank 26th and 29th against righties, respectively. They also have bad pitching, particularly early in games.

The Rangers’ Tyler Mahle comes into the game with a 1.47 overall ERA, although his xFIP is 4.05. Early in games, that mark rises above 5.00. It certainly seems like he’s been far more lucky than good this season.

Sean Burke of the White Sox has a 4.64 ERA as a starter. That’s slightly higher his first time through the order. Those are bad numbers, but he’s also probably even worse.

His overall and first-time-through-the-order xFIP numbers are more than a full run higher.

Given the offenses involved, I wouldn’t be comfortable paying any juice on this line, but at plus money, it’s worth a shot.

Phillies vs. Athletics NRFI/YRFI Prediction

Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Jeffrey Springs

While the Athletics starter is still listed as “undecided” in some sportsbooks, others have started to list Jeffrey Springs, so we can make our projections based on the assumption that’s what happens.

That would be great news for Philadelphia, since Springs has a 6.86 ERA his first time through the order to go with his 5.94 xFIP.

In addition, the Phillies‘ wRC+ as a team jumps more than 20 points against left-handed pitching, one of the more extreme platoon splits in baseball.

With Sutter Health Field in Sacramento being one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, there’s a lot to like for these offenses in general.

Zack Wheeler being on the mound for Philly limits the value on the A’s side, though, so it makes more sense to take the single-team YRFI.