MLB odds, best bets: Expert picks for Opening Day 3/28

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Expert Picks for Thursday, March 28

Red Sox vs. Mariners

Thursday, March 28, 10:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Brayan Bello vs. Luis Castillo

I like all of the pitchers in Boston's rotation, though I prefer Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta to Brayan Bello. I also have a high opinion on several young players in their lineup, especially Triston Casas.

Boston will go as far as its bullpen takes it this season after finishing 21st in reliever xFIP (4.40) and 22nd in K-BB% in 2023. Only one pitcher, Chris Martin, is projected for a sub-4.00 FIP.

Seattle's bullpen is much deeper but is dealing with critical injuries heading into the season. Matt Strahm and Gregory Santos are nursing injuries, and Jackson Kowar is undergoing season-ending surgery.

As a result, Seattle only has two relievers who project for a sub-4.00 FIP on its current roster (Andres Munoz and Gave Speier). In a one-game scenario — with both bullpens rested — there is a negligible difference (0.16 runs) in an ERA projection for these units.

Luis Castillo (3.79 Model Weighted ERA for 2024, with a 3.82 xERA, 3.81 xFIP last season) is a better pitcher than Bello (4.18 Model Weighted ERA; 4.18 xERA, 4.02 xFIP last season) but the gap isn't as wide as you may initially assume.

While I prefer Crawford or Pivetta in Boston's rotation, Bello has the best projections of the trio. However, both George Kirby and Logan Gilbert offer superior projections to Castillo, and I prefer both youngsters anecdotally.

Moreover, Castillo has generally been a slow starter throughout his career, pitching to a 4.16 ERA through May, compared to a 3.32 ERA after that.

Boston's superior offense in this series could offset Seattle's pitching advantage. And the Red Sox pitching staff seems to be improving under the tutelage of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey.

I projected the Red Sox as +126 (44.25% implied) underdogs for opening day and bet Boston down to +137 (42.25% implied), a two percent edge compared to my fair odds.

Additionally, I set the total at 8.02 runs and would bet Over 7.5 to -110. With starting pitchers still stretching out their arms, forming a bridge to the high-leverage relievers could be an issue for both teams in this series.

Bets: Red Sox ML (+137 or Better) | Over 7.5 (-110 or Better)

Yankees vs. Astros

Thursday, March 28, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Nestor Cortes Jr. vs. Framber Valdez

Once a season starts, it's pretty easy to determine which pitchers I think are overvalued or undervalued based upon a handful of games with actual betting odds.

However, I typically anticipate potentially undervalued pitchers for a season by creating fantasy baseball rankings — using my projections — and discovering which players are most over or under-drafted compared to ADP.

For 2024, I have Framber Valdez ranked as the ninth-best starting pitcher in standard 5x5 leagues, and Nestor Cortes ranked 25th, yet they are drafted as the 16th and 41st best-starting pitchers, respectively.

As an aside, Zach Eflin (ranked 11th, drafted 22nd) and Corbin Burnes (ranked 10th, drafted second) are my most undervalued and overvalued fantasy starting pitchers, respectively, among the top tiers of arms.

While there isn't a direct correlation between fantasy and pitcher projections for betting purposes, there is some overlap concerning valuation relative to public sentiment.

After a dominant 2022 campaign (2.70 xERA), Nestor Cortes Jr. was limited by a rotator cuff strain and succumbed to poor luck (4.97 ERA, 3.66 xERA) in 2023. His command has been OK this spring (16 K, 4 BB in 14 IP), but he did permit three homers, continuing a concerning trend (career 1.49 HR/9).

Valdez saw his groundball rate (62.9% career) decline by 12 points last season (from 66.5% to 54.2%) and permitted a career-high 19 homers. However, he also posted the best K-BB% (17.4%) of his three-year run as a starting pitcher.

Expect Valdez to continue to pitch closer to his 3.45 ERA or 3.39 xFIP than a 4.33 xERA from last season may otherwise indicate, especially if his groundball rate trends back toward his career norm.

Valdez posted a 74.9% groundball rate with his sinker in 2021 and 68.6% in 2022, but that number fell to 54.3% last season.

Both offenses ranked in the top 10 last season in pull and flyball rates, and they are loaded with power hitters trying to damage the opposing pitcher. Limiting the long ball will be crucial for both starters.

I set the total at 8.24 runs for opening day in Houston. Bet Under 8.5 to -102.

I projected the Astros around shy of 56% (-127 implied) on the moneyline, and I don't see value on either side.

Bet: Under 8.5 (-102 or Better)

Nationals vs. Reds

Thursday, March 28, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Josiah Gray vs. Frankie Montas

Frankie Montas missed the entirety of the 2023 season following shoulder surgery, but inked a one-year, incentive-laden deal with the Reds and looked sharp over his final two starts in spring training (9 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 11 K) while tossing 58 of his 63 pitches for strikes.

Projection systems offer a conservative estimate of his current talent level (projected FIP range 4.37-4.52) after posting a 3.48 ERA and 4.01 xFIP during his last healthy season in 2022.

I expect Montas to beat those projections and view him as a significantly better pitcher than Josiah Gray (projected FIP range 4.89-5.36), who overperformed with a 3.91 ERA, 5.03 xERA and 5.12 xFIP last season.

Despite losing Matt McLain to injury, the Reds have a much better starting lineup (projected 113 vs. 96 wRC+), and the bullpens are comparable.

I projected the Reds as -187 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and as -161 favorites for the full game. Bet those lines to -172 and -148 individually, or include them as parlay pieces to -180 and -155, respectively.

Both teams are poor defensively, finishing 27th and 28th in Defensive Runs Saved last season (-30 for Washington, -38 for Cincinnati), without any expectation of improvement this year.

The Great American Ball Park is typically one of the most friendly offensive environments in baseball. Still, with temperatures sitting at 56 degrees at first pitch, it knocked my total projection down to 9.05 — in line with the betting market.

Bets: Reds F5 (-172 or Better) | Reds ML (-148 or Better)

Giants vs. Padres

Thursday, March 28, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Logan Webb vs. Yu Darvish

The Padres revamped their batter's eye this season, potentially increasing offense in a park that typically plays about 10 percent below the league-average run-scoring environment.

Still, with winds blowing in from left field between 10-12 mph at game time for Opening Day, I lean to the under (projected 7.13); I'd want -105 or better to bet Under 7.5.

I projected the Giants as slight favorites in this matchup; -114 for the first five innings and -108 for the full game, and I would bet San Francisco in either half to -105.

I view Logan Webb (3.35 model-weighted ERA) as a superior pitcher to Yu Darvish (4.13 model-weighted ERA), who struggled with command and danced through danger during his Seoul Series opener against the Dodgers.

I also give the Giants the bullpen advantage (by nearly one-third of a run on an ERA projection) and view them as the better defensive and baserunning team, which is more than enough to negate the Padres' slight offensive advantage (+0.1 runs per game vs. an average pitching staff).

The Giants posted -11 DRS at third base (27th) and -20 DRS at shortstop (30th) last season. Two-time Platinum Glove recipient Matt Chapman (+3) and former Gold Glover Nick Ahmed (scratch defender in 2023) represent substantial defensive upgrades on the left side of the infield.

The pair could help stifle Webb's BABIP (.306 career) and drive his ratios to Cy Young territory (62.1% groundball rate in 2023).

Bets: Under 7.5 (-105 or Better) | Giants F5 (-105 or Better) | Giants ML (-105 or Better)

Twins vs. Royals

Thursday, March 28, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Pablo Lopez vs. Cole Ragans

With Braves-Phillies pushed to Friday, Pablo Lopez vs. Cole Ragans is the best pitching matchup on the Opening Day slate.

Lopez tied with Gerrit Cole and George Kirby last season for the AL lead in Pitching+ (109), just behind Spencer Strider (112) and Zack Wheeler (111) among all starting pitchers. He posted dominant underlying metrics for the season (3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP), but the results didn't show up until July (4.24 ERA through June, 3.03 ERA after).

Cole Ragans posted a 104 Pitching+ rating after joining the Royals' rotation in mid-July. He pitched to a 2.64 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, and 21.7% K-BB% over 12 starts. And he's looked electric in spring, displaying a wide arsenal with triple-digit fastball velocity from the left side.

Projection systems are much higher on Lopez (projected FIP range 3.50-3.54) than Ragans (projected range 3.89-4.1). Stuff+ gives a more favorable outlook on the latter (3.9), and I expect Ragans to out-pitch those projections this season when he is on the mound.

Given the velocity and potential workload increase, I'm concerned about his longevity (114 innings last season was a career-high). Still, I view the talent gap between these starters as closer to a quarter-run rather than a half-run.

Despite missing some key relievers (Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar), the Twins have a superior bullpen and starting lineup. However, their offense consistently ranks in the top eight against righties but closer to the league average against lefties — and they have a similar group as last season.

I would consider taking -110 or better on the Twins either in the first five innings or the full game, and I would lean toward the latter, given the bullpen advantage.

I projected the total at 7.4 runs and would bet Under 8 to -112 or Under 7.5 to +105. Alternatively, or additionally, I would bet an F5 Under 4 to -120 (projected 3.4).

Bets: Under 8 (-112 or Better) or Under 7.5 (+105 or Better) | F5 Under 4 (-120 or Better)

Lean: Twins ML (-110 or Better)

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

Thursday, March 28, 4:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Miles Mikolas vs. Tyler Glasnow

I project a fairly significant starting pitching advantage for the Dodgers and see a big difference between Tyler Glasnow (3.35 Model Weighted ERA) and Miles Mikolas (4.63). However, this difference narrows to closer to a quarter of a run once this game moves to the bullpens.

Projection systems see a comparable gap between Glasnow (projected FIP range 3.37-3.69) and Mikolas (4.55-4.81). If anything, the gap is conservative: Glasnow posted a 3.55 ERA and 2.75 xFIP last season, compared to marks of 5.44 and 4.76 for Mikolas.

As a result, I projected the Dodgers as -270 favorites for the first five innings (F5) and as -210 favorites for the full game — a difference of nearly five percent. You can bet Los Angeles on the F5 moneyline only, up to -245.

Bet: Dodgers F5 (-245 or Better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, March 28

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• Boston Red Sox (+152, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to +137)
• Boston Red Sox / Seattle Mariners, Over 7.5 (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings (Bet to -110)
• Cincinnati Reds F5 (-150, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -170)
• Los Angeles Dodgers F5 (-225, 0.25u) at Fanatics (bet to -245ets
• Minnesota Twins / Kansas City Royals, Under 8 (-112, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -112)
• New York Yankees / Houston Astros, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -102)
• Parlay (+160, 0.5u) at FanDuel: Baltimore Orioles (-172) & Cincinnati Reds (-155)
• Parlay (+175, 0.25u) at WynnBet: Minnesota Twins / Kansas City Royals, F5 Under 4.5 (-141) & Cleveland Guardians / Oakland Athletics, F5 Under 4.5 (-164)
• San Francisco Giants F5 (-105, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to -105)
• San Francisco Giants (+102, 0.5u) at BetRivers (Bet to -105)