MLB odds: Can anyone stop Houston in the American League West?

Now do we expect the ‘Stros to win the division by 16 games like they did a year ago? Absolutely not. But you’d be taking a huge risk if you choose to bet against them. Houston (-215) is once again a heavy favorite to win the AL West followed by Seattle (+320), Texas (+900), Los Angeles (+1200) and Oakland (+25000).

Despite the betting lines being so high on the remaining four teams to win the West, betting on anyone other than Houston is dangerous. We know little bit of money on the other four teams to win the division results in a high return, but don’t do it. We’re that confident Houston’s American League dominance is far from over, and it starts with beating the teams in your division, which the Astros have had little difficulty doing since 2016.

Oakland Athletics
To win the Division: +25000
Win Total: Over 60 (-110)/Under 60 (-110)

Oakland was the worst team in the American League last year, and the sportsbooks don’t expect much from Billy Beane’s Athletics again this season. Everywhere you look for the most part, Oakland is projected to finish with the worst record in the American, let alone the AL West. The A’s have some young talent on their roster — Ramon Laureano, Cristian Pache, Nick Allen, etc. — but this team is far from ready to compete for the division title.

The A’s pitching might catch some off guard, but Oakland stunk offensively last season — last in OPS (.627), slugging (.346), OBP (.281) and hits (1,147) — and we’re not overly optimistic Oakland’s offense will be much better this year. That’s a problem, especially when you look at the rest of the division’s lineups. The A’s should be better than they were a year ago, but betting on Oakland to do anything meaningful — win the division or make the playoffs (+3500) — is just way too risky for our liking.

Los Angeles Angels
To win the Division: +1200
Win Total: Over 80 (-110)/Under 80 (-110)

Every year the Angels make moves in the offseason — free agent signings, trades, releases, etc. — and yet, every year Los Angeles misses out on the playoffs. This team has had high preseason expectations for the last couple of seasons, yet no results. Why should this year be any different?

We know Anthony Rendon is expected to be healthy for the start of the season and that Tyler Anderson should immediately be the Angels’ No. 1 starter after having a career year with the Dodgers last season, but we’re not taking the bait. This team has gotten very little offensive production outside of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani for a while now, and don’t even get us started on the bullpen. To put it kindly, it’s been below average for quite some time.

The starting rotation was a pleasant surprise, but every year something else goes south in a hurry, and we’re not convinced this season will be any different. It’s hard to believe Trout has yet to play in the playoffs, especially when you consider the most versatile player in baseball (Ohtani) is on his team, but the sad reality is there’s been no consistency outside of those two for quite some time. Sorry, Angels fans, we don’t see a playoff team here, let alone a .500 ball club.

Texas Rangers
To win the Division: +900
Win Total: Over 81.5 (-110)/Under 81.5 (-110)

Could Texas be MLB’s biggest surprise like Seattle was last year. Maybe, maybe. The Rangers (+180) are still a longshot to make the playoffs, at least according to the sportsbooks, and to be honest, we’re kind of surprised. Texas should give Seattle a run for second place in the West, and if this team stays healthy — specifically Jacob deGrom — the Rangers could sneak up on some people.

Corey Seager and Marcus Semien need to have bounce back seasons, but if they do and Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia produce offensively like they did last season, this team should have no trouble scoring. Everyone knows deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball when he’s on the mound, it’s just a matter of whether or not he can consistently take the ball every fifth day. If he does, and Andrew Heaney and Nathan Eovaldi pitch well, this team should be OK.

The bullpen finished with the 12th-best ERA last season, and adding Ian Kennedy should only make the Rangers back end that much better. Replacing Matt Moore certainly won’t be easy, but Kennedy, Joe Barlow, Jose Leclerc and Brock Burke are more than capable of picking up the slack in 2023.

The Rangers are still nowhere near as good as the Astros, but expect them to make the AL West more competitive than some may expect.

Seattle Mariners
To win the Division: +320
Win Total: Over 89 (-110)/Under 89 (-110)

Are the Mariners a one-year wonder? That’s yet to be seen. Seattle went from postseason long shot a year ago, to a team that is projected to make the playoffs and finish right around 90 wins again. But they’ll have to do it with a target on their back, and for some teams, that’s not easy. Seattle is no longer an under-the-radar team. They’ve garnered the attention of Major League Baseball, and rightfully so.

Reigning American League Rookie of the Year award winner Julio Rodriguez will need to replicate a great 2022 season. And same goes for Eugenio Suarez, who hit 31 home runs last year. If Rodriguez can avoid the sophomore slump, and Suarez and catcher Cal Raleigh can continue to provide the thump in the middle of the order, Seattle should be ok offensively.

But Seattle didn’t get to the postseason last year because of its offense, it was because of its pitching. Robbie Ray, Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo all made 25+starts and posted ERAs below four, and they’ll need them to be just as good if this team is going to be in the playoffs year after year.

And as hard as it may to believe, the Mariners' bullpen was even better than its starting staff last year. Seattle posted the sixth-best bullpen ERA in 2022, and if the game was close past the sixth inning, chances were pretty darn high that the M’s were going to come away with a win. Paul Sewald, Penn Murfee, Andres Munoz and Erik Swanson each made 55+ appearances and finished with an ERA under three. That’s pretty damn good, and if all four are on the ball again in 2023, look out.

Seattle is the best team in this division outside of Houston, but they’ve still got a long way to go to get to the mountain top. We could see the Mariners making a legit run at a division title in 2024 or 2025, but the AL West still runs through Houston.

Houston Astros
To win the Division: -215
Win Total: Over 96.5 (-110)/Under 96.5 (-110)

What is there really to say about the Astros? They’ve unequivocally been the best team in baseball since 2017. Two World Series titles, four World Series appearances, five Division titles, six straight ALCS appearances and 95+ wins in five of the last six seasons.

Yeah, we know you don’t want to hear it, but it’s true. Doesn’t matter who’s managing this club or serving as the team’s General Manager. These guys just keep on producing, year after year. And guess what? We don’t see that changing anytime soon.

This team’s biggest challenge will be replacing reigning AL Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander. However, if the 2022 postseason taught us anything, it’s that Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez are more than ready. Valdez set an MLB record last year with 25 consecutive quality starts, and Javier allowed just one earned run and two hits over 12.2 innings in the postseason. They’re more than capable of anchoring the top of the rotation, followed by Jose Uriquidy, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia.

As for the bullpen, that was arguably Houston’s biggest concern entering the 2022 postseason, but once the playoffs started, it was its biggest strength. ‘Stros relievers posted a 0.83 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, held opponents to a .126 batting average and struck out 70 hitters over 54.1 innings in the postseason. Five different pitchers didn’t allow a run out of the bullpen in the playoffs, and no matter who was pitching, strikeouts were no problem.

And we already knew the Astros could hit. Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, they’re all elite hitters. And now 2020 AL MVP Jose Abreu is on the team, plus a healthy Michael Brantley. Yeah, scoring runs and hitting for power, that won’t be a problem for Houston.

No matter how you look at it, Houston is the team to beat in the AL West. Even putting money on Houston to repeat as American League (+260) or World Series (+600) champs is a good bet, too.

Team to win AL West: Houston Astros (-215 odds)

Bet $215 to win $100

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook