MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, and preview for Tue. 8/27

MLB Predictions Tuesday, Expert Picks, Odds, and Preview for Today, Aug. 27

Sean Zerillo's Astros vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet

Tuesday, Aug. 27

6:40 p.m. ET

SCHN

Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)

Justin Verlander and Aaron Nola have shown decreased underlying metrics in the pitch clock era over the past two seasons — relative to their respective levels in 2022.

Verlander (3.67 xERA, 15.1% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 4.61 botERA) won the AL Cy Young in 2022 (2.66 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%, 113 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA), but his fastball has dipped from 95 mph (94.3 career) to 93.5 mph over the same span. He's pitching more like a mid-rotation starting pitcher in his 40s than an ace.

Aaron Nola (3.91 xERA, 16.3% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.65 botERA) has shown a similar performance dip (2.74 xERA, 25.5% K-BB%, 108 Pitching+, 2.64 botERA), albeit with a less severe velocity dip. Still, Nola is in his age-31 season and signed a 7-year, $172m deal this past offseason; the Phillies need him to stay on the mound — and continue to eat innings — to pay off that deal.

Nola's strikeout rate has declined each of the past four seasons, and his walk rate has increased in consecutive years:

Both teams need length from their starters on Tuesday — the two deployed nine relievers combined in a 3-2 extra-innings affair on Monday — and both clubs have been playing for more than a week straight; Philadelphia last had an off-day on Monday, August 19, while the Astros haven't been off since Thursday, August 15.

Weather (87 degrees at first pitch, winds 3-4 mph out to right field) should slightly boost the offensive environment at the Bank on Tuesday. I projected the total at 9.13 runs, compared to 8.7 on a weather-neutral day.

Bets: Over 8.5 (-114 or better)

Sean Zerillo's MLB Royals vs. Guardians Prediction & Pick

Tuesday, Aug. 27

6:40 p.m. ET

BSGL

Michael Lorenzen (KCR) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)

Underlying metrics suggest that the respective ERAs for Michael Lorenzen (3.47) and Gavin Williams (5.13) should be flipped — Williams' underlying indicators are those of a pitcher with an ERA closer to four, while Lorenzen projects as more of a back-end, No. 5 starter, with ERA estimators nearer to five.

Williams (4.52 xERA, 4.00 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB%, 102 Pitching+, 3.66 botERA) has permitted a high BABIP (.335) and carried a strand rate (67.4%) below the MLB average; both ERA drivers should regress toward league averages (.289 and 72%, respectively). Moreover, rest-of-season projection systems put Williams' FIP between 3.99 and 4.14.

Conversely, Lorenzen (4.70 xERA, 4.99 xFIP, 6.6% K-BB%, 95 Pitching+, 5.13 botERA) has generated the lowest BABIP (.240, .278 career) and highest strand rate (82.5%, 74.6% career) of his career. Rest of season projections put Lorenzen's FIP between 4.60 and 4.94).

Typically, I'd give the Guardians the bullpen advantage, too, but their relievers have worked harder recently — including Monday's doubleheader. On Monday, the Guardians used five relievers in multi-inning stints and deployed Hunter Gaddis, Burch Smith, and Emmanuel Clase for a second consecutive day. Conversely, the Royals only have one reliever (who tossed three pitches on Sunday) who went back-to-back, and only two relievers have worked twice in three days.

Kansas City has the offensive advantage, too, ranking fourth against right-handed pitching since the All-Star Break, while Cleveland is 26th. However, the Royals remain a better offense at home (11th) than on the road (20th).

I show a sizeable edge on Cleveland's first-half moneyline but would need -135 or better to play their bullpen game moneyline.

Weather (89 degrees at first pitch, 4-6 mph winds out to right field) should provide a boost to the new offensive environment at Progressive Field, which has seen a significant increase in homers to right field in 2024 (120 Home Run Factor for left-handed hitters; 93 from 2021-2023). I projected the total at 9.23 runs.

Bets: Guardians F5 Moneyline (-155 or better) | Over 8.5 (-118 or better)

Sean Zerillo's MLB Best Bet For Mets vs. Diamondbacks

Tuesday, Aug. 27

9:40 p.m. ET

SNY

Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)

Sean Manaea has been on a tear over the past month, posting a 2.60 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 24.6% K-BB% over 31 innings pitched (20 H, 9 R, 7 BB, 37 K).

Manaea's command has been excellent over that span, and his pitch modeling metrics have improved too (92 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 101 Pitching+, 3.89 botERA), compared to the 106 innings prior (86 Stuff+, 96 Location+, 95 Pitching+, 4.81 botERA).

Manaea started dabbling with a cutter (84 Stuff+) in 2024 (11.5% usage rate through July 24). Still, he has essentially put the pitch away over the past month (0.2% usage rate), and his command and overall results have drastically improved.

Eduardo Rodriguez (4.65 xERA, 10.3% K-BB%, 4.11 botERA, 97 Pitching+) has looked much better in his past two outings — albeit against the Marlins and Rockies — than he did in his 2024 debut — after missing the majority of this year with a lat (back/shoulder) strain.

E-Rod's velocity (91.5 mph) is down slightly compared to last season (92.2 mph, 15.3% K-BB%, 83 Stuff) and more in line with his 2022 form (91.7 mph, 4.20 xERA, 9.7% K-BB%, 78 Stuff+). The command (108 Location+) appears to be fine, but I don't think he's necessarily 100%, either. I'd take the Over on Rodriguez's projected rest-of-season FIP range (3.76 to 4.14; 3.86 career), and he posted a 4.43 FIP in 2022, wherein I'd set his projected range between 4.15 and 4.45.

Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (-106 or better)

Sean Zerillo's MLB Predictions and Picks for Tuesday, Aug. 27

• Cleveland Guardians F5 (-130, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -155)
• Cleveland Guardians / Kansas City Royals, Over 8.5 (-110, 0.5u) at  FanDuel (bet to -118)
• Houston Astros / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 8.5 (-103, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -114)
• Los Angeles Angels / Detroit Tigers, Under 9.5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
• Miami Marlins / Colorado Rockies, Over 11 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -114)
• New York Mets F5 (+100, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -106)
• Texas Rangers / Chicago White Sox, Over 8 (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -122 or 8.5, -103)