MLB Parlay of the Day for Thu., 6/16: Our new writer's 'conservative parlay' strategy

My name is Jared Shlensky and this is my first piece for Yardbarker (woo-hoo!). One thing you'll learn about me is that I like parlays -- like a lot -- especially when it comes to Major League Baseball (MLB). 

However, I tend to be conservative with my parlays. I know, I know. A conservative parlay? Is that a thing? 

Well, sort of. I tend to look at it like a teaser for football, except I like to combine the alternative spread options into a parlay -- hence, a conservative parlay. Instead of combining three teams that I think will win into one parlay, I like to give myself a bit of a cushion and take them +1.5 or +2.5 on the run line. It mostly depends on where the betting line stands.

My Parlay: San Diego Padres (+1.5), Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5) & Los Angeles Angels (+1.5)

Combine these three games into a parlay and guess what? You're getting plus odds -- +100 (via FanDuel) to be exact. That means you're doubling your money. Not bad for a parlay ... oops I mean a conservative parlay.

San Diego Padres (+1.5) vs. Chicago Cubs

Padres vs. Cubs is the earliest of the three games in my parlay -- 2:20 p.m. (ET) first pitch. Now do I think the Padres beat the Cubs on Thursday? Absolutely. But, like I said earlier ... this is a conservative parlay. If the Padres lose, I like my chances of it being by no more than a run. 

First and foremost, the Padres are a playoff contending team, and to put it kindly for the Cubs, well, they aren't. Not to mention the Padres are starting their best pitcher on Thursday in Joe Musgrove. 

Musgrove has yet to allow a run in two starts this month and enters Thursday's series finale 7-0 with a 1.50 ERA in 11 starts. Advantage Padres. And not by just a little, but a lot. San Diego is 10-1 in Musgrove's starts and the Cubs are just praying they don't get swept and lose their ninth straight game. Rookie Matt Swarmer gets the start in the series finale for the Cubs, but I'm not too optimistic it goes all that well. Not only has Swarmer made just three big league starts in his career, but his last one didn't go well against the New York Yankees -- six runs allowed over five innings in the loss. Don't overthink it, ride the Padres +1.5.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+1.5)

I promise I'm not intentionally picking day games, but I like Toronto +1.5 on the run line on Thursday afternoon against Baltimore. Not only is Toronto going for the series on Thursday after winning in walk-off fashion on Wednesday, but they're also looking for their third straight series win. Good news for the Blue Jays, they're going with the veteran Kevin Gausman on the bump. 

It's the first time Gausman faces his former team this season, and even better news is that he's coming off a strong outing going into Thursday -- just one earned run allowed over six innings. Oh, and did I mention the Orioles have yet to win a series this month? I don't think I did. Again, advantage Toronto.

Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) vs. Seattle Mariners

Nothing like sitting at home, late at night by the TV waiting to see if your parlay hits, right? Well, there's a good a chance that's the case on Thursday. Not only because this is the "riskiest" of my three picks, but because this is the latest of all the MLB games on Thursday. 

Now I'm not so sure the Angels win on Thursday, but I expect them to be in it to the end. Why? Because Shohei Ohtani is starting. In what has been an up-and-down season for Ohtani and the Angels, the reigning American League MVP looks to be settling in on the mound. The two-way player is coming off the win in his last outing vs. Boston -- seven innings of one-run ball -- and the Angels look to have finally put that 14-game losing streak behind them. 

As for their opponent in the Seattle Mariners, they're starting rookie George Kirby in the series opener. Now make no mistake about it, Kirby has been good this season -- 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in seven starts and a quality start in two of his last three starts -- but he hasn't faced the Angels yet, and that lineup isn't easy to pitch against. Mike Trout, Ohtani, Jared Walsh, Anthony Rendon, etc. You see where I'm going here, right? They got more than just a couple of guys in that lineup that can swing it. 

I expect this game to be the tightest of my three, but I still like the Angels to win this one, nonetheless, lose by no more than a run.