MLB picks and predictions: Best bets for Wed. 6/5

Braves vs. Red Sox

Wednesday, June 5, 1:35 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Red Sox Moneyline -106 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Boston gets the edge at home with the better pitching staff. The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta starts to the hill, and he has much more experience under his belt than Spencer Schwellenbach, who is making just his second start in the majors. Pivetta strikes out plenty of hitters and doesn't issue walks, so he should have an advantage.

The lineups are comparable, but Boston has some more power with Ronald Acuña out for the season. Atlanta is getting a bit too much credit in this spot.

Pivetta can throw strikes and will generate strikeouts, and consequently, I'm backing the Red Sox to win this one at Fenway Park and would bet them down to -125.

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-106)

Giants vs. Diamondbacks

Wednesday, June 5, 3:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Giants Moneyline +114 (FanDuel)

By Kevin Rogers

The Giants have spun out of control since taking the first two games at home against the Phillies in late May.

However, San Francisco will look to get revenge on Jordan Montgomery and the Diamondbacks following a 16-run loss in the last matchup against him in April.

Both starting pitchers Jordan Hicks and Montgomery will look to rebound off poor starts their last time out, but Hicks owns some better splits in this matchup. Hicks still owns a solid 2.70 ERA this season, and his ERA drops to 1.36 in day starts.

The last time Hicks faced the Diamondbacks was on April 21st at Oracle Park; the former Cardinal yielded just one hit and one run in five innings of work. Unfortunately for Hicks, the Giants couldn't hold on to a 2-1 lead after his departure and lost to the Diamondbacks by a final score of 5-3.

I'm backing San Francisco to cash as a road underdog in the finale in Phoenix, with value on the moneyline down to +105.

Pick: Giants Moneyline (+114)

Dodgers vs. Pirates

Wednesday, June 5, 6:40 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Pirates Moneyline (-118, FanDuel)

By Sean Zerillo

Paul Skenes has been incredibly impressive through four outings (2.45 ERA, 2.82 xERA, 29.8% K-BB%, 113 Stuff+, 107 Location+). He owns the highest Pitching+ figure (112) of all starters in baseball this season.

The BAT puts his rest-of-season FIP projection at 3.24 — Steamer is even more aggressive, at 2.74. For context, that's only behind Mason Miller (2.17), Jacob deGrom (2.44) and Andres Munoz (2.70), and ahead of Jhoan Duran (2.85) and Tarik Skubal (2.85).

He'll be opposed by a pitcher I've been down on for quite some time: James Paxton.

Don't let the 3.29 ERA fool you, Paxton's a big-time regression candidate. To summarize my thoughts:

• Paxton's indicators (5,21 xERA, 5.40 xFIP, 5.70 SIERA) and pitch modeling metrics (73 Stuff+; 65 in his last outing, where he left after three innings) are at career-worst levels.
• He's been extremely fortunate with a .243 BABIP (.300 career) and an 84.7% strand rate (78.8% carer).
• Paxton's velocity and strikeout rate have continued to slip since his return last May — his fastball velocity is down 1.8 mph, year over year.

I'm unsure if it is sustainable, but Pittsburgh's offense has been above average against lefties (102 wRC+, 14th) this season, but just 28th against right-handed pitching (81 wRC+).

Regardless, the Bucs have a significant starting pitching advantage.

Pick: Pirates Moneyline -118 (or better)