MLB Predictions Wednesday, Expert Picks, Projections for July 2

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, July 2.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.

For Wednesday, I preview Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Angels vs. Braves and Guardians vs. Cubs. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.

My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.

Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.

MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, July 2

Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Will Warren vs. Jose Berrios

Rogers Centre has seen a Park Factor uptick in 2025, including +8% runs and +34% home runs versus 0% (neutral) runs and +2% home runs from 2022-2024.

They moved in the walls before the 2024 season, as left-center field is seven feet closer and right-center field is 16 feet closer. They also reduced foul territory by 3,000 square feet, which means fewer cheap outs for pitchers.

It either took an extra year for hitters to take advantage or this is merely randomness.

Either way, the roof is likely to be open on Wednesday evening. There’s no rain in the forecast and it’ll be mid 70s at first pitch, providing a slight boost to scoring. About +6% is given to Wednesday’s weather, increasing my overnight projection for this game’s total from around 9.12 to 9.68.

Bo Bichette (knee) is projected to be back in Toronto’s lineup, although I still project 9.5 runs if he’s out again.

Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is running hot, with a low BABIP (.271 vs. .289 career) and a high LOB (80.8% vs. 74.8% career). That explains his delta between his 3.26 ERA and his 4.56 xERA and 4.15 xFIP. However, he’s outperformed his xERA by a full run for three seasons.

Still, the Yankees have hit him hard (.874 OPS in 161 plate appearances), including Aaron Judge, who’s 14-for-27 with a 1.291 OPS, five home runs, six walks and seven strikeouts.

These are process-driven offenses, as the Yankees are first in SEAGER (swing selection) while the Blue Jays are 10th. They work opposing pitchers, and every key reliever on both sides has pitched multiple times in the last three-to-five days, setting this up nicely for both offenses to succeed.

Plus, there’s bullpen familiarity given that these are division rivals.

Bet the over to 9 (-115) if the roof is open, but I’m fine with 8 (-120) or 9 (+100) if it’s closed.

Pick: Over to 9 (-115)

Angels vs. Braves

Yusei Kikuchi vs. Didier Fuentes

I’ll start with Didier Fuentes, who has elite stuff (109 Stuff+; 108 Fastball, 108 Slider, 115 Curve) and pitch modeling metrics (110 Pitching+, 3.34 botERA) but has posted an 8.27 xERA, 7.5% K-BB% and 21.1% Called Strike Plus Whiff percentage in two appearances.

He has a low whiff and swinging strike rate (8.1%) discouraging him, even in a limited sample. He had a 15.8% swinging strike rate and 30.2% CSW% across 39 minor league innings in 2025.

The Angels’ offense is dangerous, as it’s 12th against right-handed pitchers with a 106 wRC+ in June. L.A. is second in the MLB this season in Damage per Batted Ball Event, sitting between the Dodgers (third) and Yankees (first). Meanwhile, the Braves rank sixth in the same category.

On the flip side, Yusei Kikuchi is locked in. Over his last three starts, he’s recorded 31 strikeouts and three walks across 19 2/3 innings pitched.

The Braves are process-driven, though, as they’re seventh in SEAGER (swing selection) and are also in their better split (they project 6% better vs. lefties than righties).

Basically, Atlanta will try to wait out Kikuchi and work up his pitch count.

Ozzie Albies has a career 135 wRC+ against left-handed pitching compared to a 96 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Marcell Ozuna has similar splits, as he has a career 135 wRC+ vs. lefties and a 96 wRC+ vs. righties.

Finally, Austin Riley has a career 134 wRC+ against left-handers and a 119 wRC+ against right-handers.

The Angels have a terrible bullpen (27th in xFIP, 25th in K-BB%, 24th in botERA) and defense (29th in Defensive Runs Saved, 27th in Outs Above Average).

I project 10.01 runs for this game, so bet the over at 9.5 from +100 to -110.

Pick: Over 9.5 (+100 to -110)

Guardians vs. Cubs

Tanner Bibee vs. Shota Imanaga

This is Shota Imanaga’s second start back from his IL stint (hamstring). His velocity (90.7 vs. 91.1 on the season) and stuff (98 vs. 93 on the season) was down in his first start back compared to earlier in 2025, but that’s not a significant concern since his injury had nothing to do with his arm.

He pitched well against a good offense in hot conditions with the wind blowing out in his first start back, and his fly-ball profile (55%) is encouraging.

Still, there are some red flags this season. His xERA is up from 3.39 to 4.32, his xFIP is up from 3.62 to 4.84 and his K-BB% is down from 21% to 11.1% year-over-year.

Facing a southpaw does keep Cleveland in its lesser split, as over the last 30 days, it has a 68 wRC+ (28th) against lefties. On the season, the Guardians have a 19-point differential facing left-handed pitchers compared to right-handed pitchers.

On the flip side, Tanner Bibee’s first nine starts consisted of stats like a 4.06 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, 8.5% K-BB% and 99 Pitching+. In seven starts since, he has a 3.71 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 21.1% K-BB% and 102 Pitching+.

He has reduced fastball usage, he re-introduced the curveball and he’s also increased his sweeper rate.

Across his last two starts, he has 8.6% and 12.5% fastball usage, respectively, but still posted 17 strikeouts to zero walks.

The Cubs’ defense is elite, both by Defensive Runs Saved (third, +45) and Outs Above Average (third, +45), and they’re second in my model behind the Blue Jays.

Meanwhile, the Guardians’ defense rates closer to average, as it’s 12th in DRS (+17) and 16th in OAA (-2). They’re still a top-10 team in my model, though.

I project 8.26 runs for this game, so target the under at 9 to -120 or at 8.5 (+100).

Pick: Under 9 to -120 or 8.5 to +100

Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 2

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• Yankees vs. Blue Jays Over 8.5 (-120) to 9 (-115)
• Angels vs. Braves Over 9.5 (+100) to -110
• Guardians vs. Cubs Under 9 (-112) to 8.5 (+100)