MLB Predictions Wednesday, Expert Picks, Projections for May 21

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, May 21

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Reds vs Pirates, Cubs vs Marlins, and Braves vs Nationals. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.

My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.

Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author’s formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.

MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, May 19

Reds vs Pirates

RHP Brady Singer (CIN) vs LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT)

Both starting pitchers started the season well but have lost command recently.

Pirates starter Andrew Heaney over his past four starts: 19 ⅓ IP, 21 H, 11 R, 13 BB, 7 K, 93 Stuff+ (compared to 100 in his first five starts).

Reds starter Brady Singer over his past four starts: 18 ⅓ IP, 19 H, 15 R, 9 BB, 11 K, 92 Pitching+ (compared to 100 in his first five starts).

The Reds are in their lesser split against a southpaw (79 wRC+, compared to 99 wRC+ against righties). However, the Pirates can’t hit either side and have been ice cold over the past two weeks (48 wRC+, .536 OPS).

However, according to Statcast, the Reds have had the luckiest offense in baseball (.318 wOBA, .310 xwOBA), while the Pirates have had the unluckiest offense (.278 wOBA, .313 xOBA).

I project the Pirates ML at around -110 for this road game.

Pick: Pirates ML (+110 | Bet To +100)

Cubs vs Marlins

RHP Cade Horton (MIA) vs RHP Max Meyer (MIA)

Cubs starting pitcher Cade Horton — the No. 7 overall pick in the 2022 draft out of Oklahoma — allowed three earned runs in each of his first two MLB starts, resulting in a 6.00 ERA.

However, his 3.11 xERA and 3.51 botERA tell a slightly different story.

He can spin the baseball, with a plus slider (105 Stuff+, 65 grade) and solid curveball (100 Stuff+, 50 grade). He might need to adjust his heavy fastball usage (57% usage, 91 Stuff+), which hasn’t played as well as expected despite the 95 MPH velo. Conversely, his rarely-used changeup (98 Stuff+) is playing better than expected, and he may increase the usage of that pitch against southpaws.

Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer has Ace-level upside (19.9% strikeout minus walk rate, 2.95 xFIP, 107 Pitching+, 3.62 botERA), but he’s giving up too much hard contact (49% hard-hit rate allowed, 9th percentile), leading to a 4.47 ERA and 4.55 xERA.

He’s looked shaky in recent performances, allowing 19 runs behind 18 strikeouts and eight walks across his past four starts — for context, he allowed just eight runs behind 41 strikeouts and seven walks across his first five starts. The velocity and stuff look good, but injuries are always a concern given his checkered health history.

I project the Cubs ML at -145 for this game.

Pick: Cubs ML (-129 | Play to -135)

Braves vs Nationals

RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs RHP Trevor Williams (WSN)

Braves starting pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver was recently picked as the NLROY favorite in an MLB.com straw poll, slightly ahead of teammate Drake Baldwin and Agustin Ramirez.

He’s on pace for a career-best strikeout minus walk rate (14.3%), but the underlying metrics scream regression (2.33 ERA, 4.90 xERA, 3.74 xFIP, 4.79 botERA, 97 Stuff+, 93 Pitching+).

Smith-Shawver has an elite splitter (114 Stuff+, .120 xBA, .160 xSLG, .167 xwOBA), but his fastball (88 Stuff+) and curveball (88) are fringe offerings. Like Meyer, he allows an uber-high hard-hit rate (47.6%) but has much worse command (10).6%) walk rate, so there are typically more ducks on the pond when the barrels come.

Nationals starting pitcher Trevor Williams was lucky last year (2.03 ERA, 3.17 xERA, 2.67 BABIP, 80.2% strand rate), but he’s been unlucky so far this season (5.91 ERA, 3.66 xERA, .356 BABIP, 63.1% strand rate).

He’s becoming a better command-and-control pitcher, especially behind a new sweeper with increased usage that should allow him to outperform projections.

The season-long stats between these two offenses are comparable, with the Braves ranking 17th among MLB lineups in wRC+, while the Nationals rank 20th. However, the Nationals have been slightly better over the past two weeks.

Although the Braves are better on defense and in the bullpen, I projected the Nationals as +114 ML underdogs for Wednesday’s game.

Pick: Nationals ML (+136 | Play to +125)

Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, May 19

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• Pirates ML (+110 | Play to +100)
• Cubs ML (-129 | Play to -135)
• Nationals ML (+136 | Play to +125)
• Rays ML (+123 | Play to +108)