MLB qualifying offer value to land at around $20.5M

The qualifying offer for the upcoming offseason will be in the $20.5M range, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The specific number may not be known until shortly after the conclusion of the regular season.

It’ll be the highest QO value in league history. The offer price is calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors. That figure generally increases year over year as overall spending rises.

The annual progression of the QO value since its implementation during the 2012-13 offseason:

• 2012-13: $13.3M
• 2013-14: $14.4M
• 2014-15: $15.3M
• 2015-16: $15.8M
• 2016-17: $17.2M
• 2017-18: $17.4M
• 2018-19: $17.9M
• 2019-20: $17.8M
• 2020-21: $18.9M
• 2021-22: $18.4M
• 2022-23: $19.65M
• 2023-24: roughly $20.5M

Teams can make the qualifying offer to an impending free agent who has a) never previously received a QO in their career and b) spent the entire 2023 season on their roster. It’d be a one-year offer valued at that approximate $20.5M price point. 

Players tagged with the QO have five days to decide whether to accept that lofty one-year salary or decline in search of a free agent contract. Signing a player who rejects a qualifying offer from another team requires forfeiture of a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus space, depending upon the signing club’s revenue sharing status. A team receives compensation for the loss of a player who turned down a QO and signed elsewhere.

14 players received qualifying offers last offseason. Joc Pederson and Martín Pérez accepted. The other 12 players declined, though Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Brandon Nimmo subsequently ended up re-signing with their previous team.

Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray and Josh Hader are among the players who are near locks to receive and reject the QO this winter. 

Jordan Montgomery and Lucas Giolito were taken out of QO consideration by midseason trades, while Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman are ineligible as previous recipients.