MLB strikeout props for 5/24: Miles is the way to go

A 1-2 mark in strikeout props on Thursday brought our record back to .500 on the week. We have one more day left to scratch out a profit, so let's do just that with our three favorite K props for Friday's MLB slate. 

James Paxton under 4.5 Ks (+105 DraftKings)

Dodgers at Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET

This number doesn't make any sense. James Paxton has been an abysmal strikeout pitcher this year with his 13 percent K rate, 18.6 percent whiff rate and 89.4 percent zone contact rate. The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander has gone under 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season. The Cincinnati Reds rank 28th in MLB in strikeout rate (25.6 percent), but they've been much better against lefties this year. Paxton faced off against the Reds in his last start and managed just two punch-outs in 6.0 innings of work. This is an auto bet at plus money.

Bailey Falter under 3.5 Ks (+115 DK)

Braves at Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET

Like Paxton, Bailey Falter has struggled to generate swings and misses all season. The Pittsburgh Pirates left-hander ranks in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate (14.6 percent), and he's gone under 3.5 Ks in three straight starts. The Atlanta Braves have been struggling at the plate lately, but current Braves hitters have a 14.6 percent K rate, a .378 batting average and a .427 xwOBA against Falter in 48 combined plate appearances. This loaded lineup can jump on Falter at any point and chase him from the game early. 

Miles Mikolas over 3.5 Ks (-150 DK)

Cubs at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. ET

We normally love fading Miles Mikolas in strikeout props, but we're switching it up this time in a solid matchup. In 149 plate appearances against Mikolas, current Chicago Cubs hitters have a 22.1 percent strikeout rate and a .287 xwOBA. That's much higher than the right-hander's 17.0 percent K rate this season. Despite his below-average swing-and-miss stats, Mikolas has gone over 3.5 Ks in six of his 10 starts this season.