New York Mets starting pitcher Paul Blackburn. Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

MLB strikeout props for Fri. 8/23: Fade this Met against the Padres

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Aug 23, 2024 1:13 PM ET

Another 2-1 mark in strikeout props on Thursday night brought us to 7-2 in our last nine picks, and we're looking to finish off the week on a profitable note. Let's keep it rolling with our three favorite K props for Friday's MLB slate.

Carlos Rodon under 8.5 Ks (-156 FanDuel)

Rockies at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

This is one of the highest strikeout prop lines we've seen all year, and Rodon isn't even an elite swing-and-miss pitcher. Sure, he ranks in the 79th percentile in whiff rate (29.5 percent) and the 72nd percentile in strikeout rate (25.8 percent), but that's not good enough to warrant a line this high. Rodon has gone over this mark just twice in 25 starts this season. The Colorado Rockies have been terrible against lefties all season, but they have only the eighth-highest K rate against southpaws over the last two weeks.

Chris Sale over 7.5 Ks (-135 DraftKings)

Nationals at Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET

In what world should Sale's strikeout prop be lower than Rodon's? The Atlanta Braves left-hander has gone over this line in 14 of his 18 starts since May, and he's not slowing down. Sale has racked up 32 strikeouts in only 17.2 innings of work this month. Now he gets to face a Washington Nationals lineup he's dominated in the past, as current Nats hitters have a whopping 54.3 percent K rate against Sale. We're eating some extra juice so far, but these lines are simply off.

Paul Blackburn under 3.5 Ks (-113 FD)

Mets at Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

We're back to fading starting pitchers going up against the San Diego Padres. The Padres have been the best team at avoiding punchouts all season, and they have a league-low 14.9 percent strikeout rate against righties this month. Blackburn ranks only in the 23rd percentile in strikeout rate this season (19.3 percent). He's faced current Padres hitters a combined 23 times and hasn't recorded a single K.

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Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

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