MLB Team Run Differential Leaderboard

One of the newer developments in the analytical age is the use of run differential as a way to compare teams with a single metric. However, I couldn't help but wonder how correlated it is to wins in 2025 and whether or not we can use it in our betting analysis in the future

MLB Team Run Differential And Win Percentages

1. Chicago Cubs — +108 Run Diff, 0.612 Win%
2. New York Yankees — +103 Run Diff, 0.615 Win%
3. Detroit Tigers — +94 Run Diff, 0.647 Win%
4. New York Mets — +89 Run Diff, 0.642 Win%
5. Los Angeles Dodgers — +65 Run Diff, 0.588 Win%
6. Tampa Bay Rays — +48 Run Diff, 0.537 Win%
7. San Francisco Giants — +46 Run Diff, 0.582 Win%
8. Cincinnati Reds — +42 Run Diff, 0.515 Win%
9. San Diego Padres — +27 Run Diff, 0.576 Win%
10. St. Louis Cardinals — +26 Run Diff, 0.537 Win%
11. Minnesota Twins — +25 Run Diff, 0.530 Win%
12. Houston Astros — +21 Run Diff, 0.545 Win%
13. Milwaukee Brewers — +20 Run Diff, 0.529 Win%
14. Boston Red Sox — +17 Run Diff, 0.478 Win%
15. Texas Rangers — +14 Run Diff, 0.478 Win%
16. Philadelphia Phillies — +12 Run Diff, 0.567 Win%
17. Atlanta Braves — +6 Run Diff, 0.424 Win%
18. Toronto Blue Jays — +1 Run Diff, 0.552 Win%
19. Arizona Diamondbacks — -7 Run Diff, 0.493 Win%
20. Seattle Mariners — -11 Run Diff, 0.500 Win%
21. Kansas City Royals — -17 Run Diff, 0.507 Win%
22. Cleveland Guardians — -23 Run Diff, 0.515 Win%
23. Chicago White Sox — -49 Run Diff, 0.343 Win%
24. Los Angeles Angels — -51 Run Diff, 0.485 Win%
25. Washington Nationals — -52 Run Diff, 0.455 Win%
26. Pittsburgh Pirates — -55 Run Diff, 0.397 Win%
27. Miami Marlins — -90 Run Diff, 0.385 Win%
28. Baltimore Orioles — -91 Run Diff, 0.400 Win%
29. Athletics — -119 Run Diff, 0.377 Win%
30. Colorado Rockies — -199 Run Diff, 0.182 Win%

TAKEAWAYS:

Smart people continue using run differential for a reason, there's an extremely strong r=0.92 correlation between the two. That said, this particular data set highlights a few teams that have both over and performed expectations.

OVERPERFORMERS:

Giants, Astros, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Padres

UNDERPERFORMERS:

Red Sox, Rangers, Braves, Reds, and Rays

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