MLB.com's "Bold Predictions" for 2024 involves Max Fried winning the NL Cy Young award

If MLB.com is right, Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried is about to have a really good year. 

The 29 year-old lefty, heading into his final year with the Braves before reaching free agency, is their choice for the 2024 NL Cy Young award. 

Writing their annual "Bold Predictions" article with one declaration per team, Atlanta's is Fried finally getting over the hump and taking home the most coveted award in pitching. Here's what they said about Fried's chances: 

We’ll save the seventh straight division title and the third straight 100-win season predictions for later. The Braves won 104 games with Fried making 13 healthy starts. We don’t know if Fried will be in Atlanta beyond the 2024 season. But we certainly know what kind of a competitor he is. As Fried distances himself from 2023’s injury-blemished season and prepares for his final season before hitting the free-agent market, he seems primed to win the Cy Young Award, which he strongly vied for in '20 and '22. 

Fried's twice finished in the top five for the award, including being the runner-up in 2022. 

In the shortened 2020 season, Fried led baseball with a perfect 7-0 record in eleven starts, pitching to a 2.25 ERA and finished 5th in the voting. In 2022, Fried was an All-Star and Gold Glove winner who went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA and finished 2nd to Miami Marlins star Sandy Alcántara.

Fried could conceivably be a candidate for the Comeback Player of the Year award, as well. Normally a paragon of consistency that had 165 or more innings in all three of the last full seasons before 2022, Fried pitched only 77.2 innings in 2023 as he dealt with three different IL stints (hamstring strain, forearm strain, blisters).

It's important to note that the NL Cy Young betting favorite, as of now, is actually Fried's teammate Spencer Strider, coming in at +550. Fried's currently sixth on the list, per FanDuel, with odds of +1400. 

Here's the current odds: 

Spencer Strider, +550
Zach Wheeler, +850
Logan Webb, +1000
Corbin Burnes, +1200
Zac Gallen, +1300
Max Fried, +1400

(Brave starters Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder are both on the board as well, with Morton coming in at +5000 and Elder at +20000. New trade acquisition Chris Sale is not on the board, as of now, despite having a vesting option contingent on a top ten Cy Young finish).

And after the season concludes, barring an improbable extension, Fried will reach free agency as a 30 year-old. He'll be one of several big name pitchers to hit the market, as of now, joining Corbin Burnes, Zach Wheeler, and Walker Buehler. 

With the way free agent pitching prices have continued to escalate this season - Aaron Nola received $24.5M AAV for seven years to return to Philadelphia, Yoshinobu Yamamoto got $27M AAV over ten to join the Dodgers, and even a 34 year-old Sonny Gray with a qualifying offer got $25M over three years - Fried could reasonably be projected to receive somewhere between $25M and $30M AAV right now, depending on how his season goes and if he can make the Cy Young prediction come true in 2024. 

(And that's without knowing what the 2023 NL Cy Young winner, lefty curveballer Blake Snell, is going to receive on his next deal, as he's currently mulling multiple offers.)

It's a good time to be Max Fried, and it could be the most important year of his professional career. 

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