National League Central betting preview

The National League Central was won by the Milwaukee Brewers last season and it is definitely the Brew Crew's to lose again this year. That pitching is more than good enough to carry Milwaukee to a World Series win if the lineup sorts itself out (or gets hot at the right time).

The odds say St. Louis is the next best team. The gap is pretty wide though. St. Louis can put together a formidable lineup but their pitching staff needs improvement. They would have been better off taking that Albert Pujols money and trying to make a small splash there.

Chicago might be able to hang in there for a little while thanks to some pitching additions while Cincinnati looks lost. The Reds gave up on their competitive window without achieving much and now they are closer to Pittsburgh than Milwaukee.

Sorry Pirates fans, this is another season that will be lost before Memorial Day weekend.

Here is a closer look at the NL Central.

National League Central Futures Odds

• Milwaukee Brewers -175
• St. Louis Cardinals +230
• Chicago Cubs +1100
• Cincinnati Reds +1600
• Pittsburgh Pirates +5000

Milwaukee Brewers (Best Bet)

Key Additions: OF Andrew McCutchen, OF Hunter Renfroe
Key Subtractions: OF Jackie Bradley Jr, OF Avisail Garcia, IF Eduardo Escobar

The Brewers are very good but they have struggled to balance their elite pitching with enough hitting. The moves they made this offseason were with that in mind. Renfroe is a proven power bat, and while McCutchen is on the decline he gives them more than they got from the likes of Bradley. They still need guys like Christian Yelich and Keston Hiura to find their form though. Otherwise, they have just shuffled the chairs on the deck. Their ceiling is higher but they still have to get there.

There are a few teams that have impressive 1-2 combos at the top of their rotation (like the Mets - when healthy) but nobody can match the trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. Those three arms dominate and each is at a career stage where there is no reason to expect a drop off. The same can be said of lefty reliever Josh Hader, the most dominant bullpen arm in the majors today. Milwaukee is in great shape on the mound. 

It is very hard to not like the Brewers to win the division and get back to the playoffs.

St. Louis Cardinals

Key Additions: SP Steven Matz
Key Subtractions: SP Luis Garcia

The Cardinals won 90 games a year ago. They got hot late and got into the playoffs but I am not sure they are any better heading into this season. The lineup is solid from top to bottom but there is not that one elite bat. You have to wonder if guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado will maintain their high levels of production as they continue to age, especially Goldy. Tyler O'Neill is the future of the lineup but he is not in the Juan Soto/Fernando Tatis category.

The gap between Milwaukee and St. Louis is massive on the mound. Jack Flaherty is their best arm but he has already developed an injury reputation. Adam Wainwright is ageless (and I love that about him) but St. Louis needs some real upgrades in this area. The addition of Matz should work but it does not give them a Big Three to compete against the Brewers. The bullpen is good but again if you are comparing it to Milwaukee it is not at the same level. 

The Cardinals definitely look better than everyone else in the division but there is a gap between them at the Brewers. The playoffs look likely though. 

Chicago Cubs 

Key Additions: SP Marcus Stroman, OF Seiya Suzuki, SP Wade Miley
Key Subtractions: SP Zach Davies

The Cubs did a lot of work reshaping their roster during last season and the results were predictable as they bombed down the stretch. It looked like a makeover was in order but they are not stripping this thing all the way down to the studs. Suzuki is a Japanese import most expect to make an immediate impact but that will not be enough for this lineup to be competitive. There is some pop with the likes of Willson Contreras and Patrick Wisdom but not enough.

What is especially curious are the investments they have made in the pitching staff for this season. Marcus Stroman is not an ace but he is a quality hurler and guys like Wade Miley and Drew Smyly are going to keep this team from falling to the depths of Pittsburgh. The bullpen is the weakest unit on the team as they did little to upgrade or invest in that area. 

This looks like a sub .500 year for the Cubbies. Even getting to .500 would be a surprise. 

Cincinnati Reds

Key Additions: OF Tommy Pham
Key Subtractions: OF Jesse Winker, OF Nick Castellanos, SP Sonny Gray

No team did more to get worse in the NL than Cincinnati this offseason. I liked what they were building offensively and on the mound but now there is little that is recognizable about this team beyond 1B Joey Votto. Jonathan India was great as a rookie last season but runs are going to be hard to come by for this group. OF Tommy Pham is well removed from being a player that pitchers had to worry about and once elite prospect Nick Senzel is almost 27 without much to show for it. 

Maybe the pitching keeps them at around the .500 level but the season is going to start with top starter Luis Castillo on the mend. Tyler Mahle was very good last year, but it also would not surprise me if he never has another season like that one in his career. The Reds have a very young rotation which means it is possible that someone breaks out (or it all falls apart). They have gotten rid of anyone in the bullpen with any sort of respectable track record, as well. There are so many question marks with this group. 

Cincinnati is much closer to Pittsburgh than Milwaukee even after winning 83 games last season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Key Additions: SP Jose Quintana, SP Zach Thompson
Key Subtractions: 3B Colin Moran

Pittsburgh somehow won 61 games last season -  I am not sure that is a reasonable goal for this season. The lineup is still waiting for 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes to follow through on his prospect status and I am not very hopeful. Without a Hayes breakout this lineup is little more than Bryan Reynolds and a bunch of fringe MLB players. Reynolds is far from a sure thing. The Pirates are going to have to pitch well to compete because they are probably the worst scoring team in the NL.

The Pirates might have a chance to be competitive on the mound. Quintana and Thompson are not aces but they are MLB quality hurlers and they should be able to give them innings. That might be the secret sauce for Pittsburgh this season, just letting their guys pitch. There is no reason to baby these guys, just get the most out of them to get through the season. The bullpen might be solid but given the state of the team, they are probably going to shed any arms they can for future considerations.