MLB player prop markets have mostly sharpened beyond any real expectation to beat them at this point — that is, except for rookie markets.
What I mean to say is there's no chance a hitter with zero at-bats or pitcher with zero innings pitched yet this season could win the Most Valuable Player or Cy Young awards at this point. However, when it comes to rookies, it's entirely possible, even if improbable to happen. It's our job to sniff out the value...
LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:
This bit of data's serving as a reminder for me to check in on these markets more often. There's too many directions this one award could go to make any definitive determinations right now. I have little to no faith in the favorites as constituted.
Let's take a quick look at the board. Atlanta's Drake Baldwin's playing well but I'd be shocked if a backup catcher brought home the ROY. Agustín Ramírez also serves as the second backstop on his team, except he earns PAs every other day as the regular DH. As of right now, he'd be my selection though it's not a runaway selection.
Since he's not that far ahead of the pack, any of the front-end SP prospects can easily win this thing, in particular the duo of Mick Abel and Logan Henderson —each has dominated hitters right out of the gate and just need a larger sample to make their case.
Thanks for reading! If you're interested in upping your analytical game and finding out about my best-selling Substack page, don't be shy. Reach out to me via DM anytime on X @JohnLaghezza and I'll hook you up with a free trial.
More must-reads:
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!