National League West betting guide

It looks like the National League West should be a runaway for the Dodgers, but that was supposed to be the case last season too. Instead we saw the Giants win 107 games and beat the Dodgers by a game. It was quite the race, and this year that would be a major surprise once again. L.A. is definitely the most complete team in the division as we start the season. 

Last year the Giants came out of nowhere to push L.A. That is what San Diego was supposed to do, but the Padres fell flat and finished under .500. Nevertheless, the Padres certainly look like the best team to challenge the Dodgers this season, especially with the way they keep adding to their club.

San Francisco is not irrelevant, but it would be a surprise if the Giants were anywhere close to their form of last season. They are kind of like Tampa Bay West so maybe it works. They are hard to read. 

Colorado and Arizona are pulling up the rear in the division, but there is still a massive gap between them. The Rockies have a ceiling of being a .500 club while the Diamondbacks would call 60 wins a successful season. 

Here is closer look at the teams in the National League West.  

National League West Futures 

• Los Angeles Dodgers -225
• San Diego Padres +325
• San Francisco Giants +550
• Colorado Rockies +8000
• Arizona Diamondbacks +10000

Los Angeles Dodgers

Key Additions: 1B Freddie Freeman, CL Craig Kimbrel
Key Subtractions: SS Corey Seager, SP Max Scherzer

The Dodgers are a very strong team, but I don't believe they are one of the all-time greatest just yet. The DH coming to the NL helps this group, and L.A. added Freeman to an already good lineup. It was easy to say goodbye to Seager with Trea Turner ready to jump in (after last year's trade with Washington). If Cody Bellinger can be more than a guy who homers, walks and strikes out, this lineup could be really good, but the bottom third does not scream super team — and Justin Truner is now 37. This team is not a slam dunk for me. 

Walker Buehler is probably going to win a couple of Cy Youngs in his career, and this year is as good as any to get started. After him the rotation is quality but not elite. Clayton Kershaw just isn't that guy anymore, and the others are good at pitching five winning innings and passing it along to the bullpen. What is going to happen with Trevor Bauer still remains to be seen. The bullpen with the addition of Kimbrel should be very good. There are veterans and young live arms. 

L.A. is head and shoulders above the rest of the division, and the odds reflect that. There is not much value there, which is why the Dodgers are not the best bet. 

San Diego Padres (Best Bet)

Key Additions: SP Sean Manaea, DH Luke Voit
Key Subtractions: RP Mark Melancon, RP Daniel Hudson

It is amazing how the Padres have become the most interesting team in baseball, spending money and making moves with abandon. Last year they crumbled in the second half and won just 79 games, but the outlook is still good, though tempered with Fernando Tatis Jr. on the shelf to start the season. They lose one of the most dynamic players in the game, but the lineup should be good enough — provided the pitching is there, which has a chance to be elite. 

Manaea is a very nice arm to add to a rotation that already had Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. That threesome, when all pitching to their capabilities, can be great and takes the pressure off of Joe Musgrove, who does not have the same track record. Add in an eventually healthy Mike Clevinger and San Diego can have the best rotation in the NL. That is how good the Friars can be and why they are still a threat even with questions about Tatis. In the bullpen they are hoping former starter Dinelson Lamet can be a closer to take some pressure off his arm. If it works, that group should be more than OK.

I always start with the pitching, and it is hard to ignore what the Padres have there. There is a lot to like, especially if Tatis comes back strong. They are worth a sprinkle. 

San Francisco Giants

Key Additions: OF Joc Pederson, SP Carlos Rodon. SP Alex Cobb
Key Subtractions: SP Kevin Gausman, 3B/OF Kris Bryant

San Francisco was a lot better than anyone expected last season. Winning over 100 games is rare, but this team looks capable of having another successful season, just not a that level. There is not an elite bat in this lineup, and with Bryant gone and Evan Longoria hurt to start the season the guys from last year's team with the best track records are not available. San Francisco looks like it is going to mix and match and try to score just enough, Tampa Bay Rays style. 

On the mound the Giants are much stronger. It hurts that they did not hold on to Gausman, their best starter from a year ago, but the combo of Logan Webb and Rodon should be formidable at the top of the rotation, while Cobb is hitting numbers on the radar gun he never did before. The rotation is a strength, and so is the bullpen.The pitching should be top five in the NL on the whole, and that is a nice foundation for future success.

Competing at the top of the division with L.A. again is too much to expect. They are a nice value if they wind up being the healthiest team. There is not much depth to the Giants. 

Colorado Rockies

Key Additions: 3B/OF Kris Bryant, OF Randal Grichuk
Key Subtractions: SP Jon Gray, SS Trevor Story

The start of every season for Colorado begins with the simple question of whether it has enough pitching to compete. This year that is a definite maybe, though that might be a minority opinion. The lineup looks like it can be very productive, though I am not sure why the Rockies were more comfortable investing in Bryant over Story. Charlie Blackmon is a born DH, and now he can do that every day. That should add a few more good years to his career, and win or lose, the addition of Grichuk should add 30 homers in that ballpark. There appears to be enough offense. 

The rotation is full of arms that are at the right age/experience to have breakthroughs. What that means in a Coors Field context might be something different than other places, but German Marquez and Kyle Freeland can be guys who go 15-10 with good peripherals and make sure the bullpen gets the occasional series with a light load. I can see it happening, and that group is going to need it too. 

Colorado is one of those teams with a massive range of outcomes. The Rockies could win anywhere from 65 to 85 games.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Key Additions: RP Mark Melancon, RP Ian Kennedy, SP Zach Davies
Key Subtractions: OF Kole Calhoun

Arizona won just 52 games last season. The way this team is constructed, it might not even reach that win total this season. There is nothing wrong with extending your own guys, but I am not sure the value of doing so with Ketel Marte (right now) to hit in a lineup with next to nothing around him. The Diamondbacks are going to challenge teams like the Pirates and Nationals for the lowest-scoring team in the NL. There is nobody in that lineup you have to be careful pitching to. 

Things are only modestly better on the mound. Madison Bumgarner is nothing more than an innings eater at this point in his career, and nobody else in the rotation looks to be able to rise to what MadBum once was. The additions of those relievers are curious. It kind of looks like they are hoping they can flip them for more value than what they are paying them. That might wind up being the case, but that is a very interesting way to try and build a team. 

Chase Field plays small so some Arizona games might be exciting, but overall this team is terrible. The D-backs are hard to like at any price.