Nationals, Cade Cavalli Nearing Agreement On Contract Extension

Cavalli, now 28, was the club’s first-round pick in in 2020, getting selected 22nd overall. His initial minor league results were impressive, vaulting him onto top prospect status. He also made his big league debut late in 2022, barely two years after being drafted.

However, the next step was a lengthy injury odyssey. He required Tommy John surgery in March of 2023, wiping out that entire season. He tried to get back on the mound in 2024 but hit various setbacks. He made three minor league appearances but otherwise missed that season as well. Even as the 2025 season began, Cavalli was still not ready, getting placed on the injured list to start that campaign.

He was finally activated from the IL in May of last year but the Nats then optioned him to the minors in order to monitor his workload after so much missed time. He was recalled in August and made ten decent starts down the stretch, posting a 4.25 earned run average, though with a subpar 18.3% strikeout rate.

Here in 2026, he has finally become the pitcher he was expected to be, stepping up as Washington’s ace. He has taken the ball 31 times and logged 164 2/3 innings with a 3.12 ERA. His 28.2% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 50% ground ball rate are all really strong figures. He has racked up 3.7 wins above placement in the eyes of FanGraphs, which puts him ninth among pitchers in the National League, so he may receive Cy Young votes.

While the Nats had legitimate reasons to want Cavalli in the minors last year, it’s probably not a total coincidence that he was held down long enough to prevent him from getting to three years of service time. He did become a Super Two guy and qualified for arbitration but his path to free agency was pushed by a year.

Since he missed so much time, his earning power in arbitration was minimal. The filing deadline in January passed without Cavalli and the Nats having an agreement in place. The pitcher and his reps filed at $900K, not much more than this year’s $780K league minimum. The Nats countered at $825K. Rather than go to a hearing over that paltry difference, the two sides agreed to a deal shortly thereafter. Cavalli was guaranteed $870K on that new pact, in the form of an $862.5K salary and a $7.5K buyout on a $4MM club option for 2027.

On the heels of this strong season, Cavalli now has far more earning power than he did a year ago. There’s good logic in both sides wanting to get a deal done, though it’s hard to evaluate the agreement without any of the details.

For Cavalli, he was on track to become a free agent after his age-30 season. If he had gone year to year, he could have been in line for a strong payday at that point. Plenty of pitchers have received nine-figure deals going into their age-31 seasons, with Max Fried, Blake Snell, Framber Valdez and Aaron Nola being some recent examples. But after an injury odyssey of almost three years, Cavalli is well aware that things could happen between now and then to lessen his earning power.

For the Nats, they have been rebuilding for many years and still have a lot of work to do before they become contenders again. Their successes have mostly been on the position player side. This year’s club is third in runs scored, behind only the Cubs and Brewers. But the pitching staff has been trailing behind, as the team has allowed the fourth-most runs in the majors this year, better than just the Rockies, Athletics and Reds. With so much uncertainty on the pitching staff, it makes sense that they would look to lock up their best arm before he gains even more earning power by getting closer to free agency and further from his injury troubles.

Cavalli’s service time is between three and four years, meaning he’s three seasons from free agency. For pitchers in that service window, there have been three relevant deals of comparison, as seen on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Logan Webb got $90MM over five years from the Giants. Shane Baz and the Orioles agreed to a four-year, $64.5MM extension. Cristian Javier got five years and $64MM from the Astros.

It’s possible that Cavalli comes in under Webb, based on track record. Webb had some brief time on the injured list in 2021 but effectively had two fully healthy seasons under his belt when he signed his deal. Baz and Javier might be better comps. Like Cavalli, Baz had plenty of injury trouble over the years and had one fully healthy season under his belt when that deal was signed. Javier began his career as a reliever/swingman and also had just one season where he was really established as a starter.

As mentioned, it would be understandable if Cavalli wanted to sacrifice some long-term upside for some near-term piece of mind, based on the long road he has been down. The Nats have close to nothing on the books. Stephen Strasburg’s deal is finally up after 2026, though the deferred payments will continue for a few more years. Keibert Ruiz is the only player still on the roster, apart from Cavalli, who is guaranteed anything next year. The Ruiz deal never pays him even $10MM in any of the guaranteed seasons. Ideally, Cavalli will be anchoring the Washington rotation for years to come as the team becomes a more legit contender over the course of the deal.

Photos courtesy of Brad Mills, Raymond Carlin III, Imagn Images