NL Cy Young Odds: Revisiting the Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin

Two months ago we mentioned how putting money on Los Angeles Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin for the National League Cy Young Award was totally worth it, and a little over a month ago we talked about how Gonsolin offered the most value on the NL Cy Young betting market.

As of July 7, the right-hander was 11-0 and led the majors in WHIP, opponents' batting average, batting average of balls in play, H/9, ERA, and ERA+. However, after back-to-back rough starts — five runs allowed over five innings and four runs allowed over six innings — in mid-July, it looked like Gonsolin's days of being a legit contender for the NL Cy Young were toast. 

But since then, the All-Star has gotten back on track. He's 5-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last five starts and might just be one of two candidates — the other being Miami's Sandy Alcantara — for the NL Cy Young. Even better news for those who put money on Gonsolin back in June, frontrunner Alcantara got rocked in his last start against the Dodgers — season-high six runs and 10 hits allowed over 3.2 innings in a loss — and is now in major jeopardy of losing the NL Cy Young. 

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Less than two weeks ago, Alcantara was -750 for the award and Gonsolin was as high as 40/1, but now, Alcantara is only -250 and Gonsolin is all the way down to +450. Maybe the sportsbooks are overreacting a little bit to Alcantara's last start, but yet again, maybe they're not. 

As of Friday, Gonsolin leads the Majors in opponents' batting average (.179) and BABIP (.201), and leads the NL in wins (16), ERA (2.10) and ERA+ (197). As for Alcantara, he leads the MLB in WAR (6.3), innings pitched (176.2) and complete games (three). However, Alcantara faces the Dodgers again on Saturday, and don't be surprised if he struggles again. The Dodgers are 19-4 over their last 23 games and have the best record in MLB. Not exactly a team you want to face if you're Alcantara, right? Right. 

And it doesn't exactly get any easier for Alcantara after that. Alcantara will likely face Atlanta following his start on Saturday against the Dodgers, and then the Mets and Phillies. Those are all good teams with strong offenses.

And if Gonsolin can continue pitching the way he has, he might just lead the NL in ERA and wins. That's good enough for the NL Cy Young. The award focuses more on quality, not quantity. Yes, Alcantara has made more starts and has more innings pitched and complete games, but Gonsolin has the better ERA and might be the only pitcher in the NL to get to 20 wins.

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I know Gonsolin's teammate Julio Urias recorded 21 wins and a 2.96 ERA last year and didn't win the NL Cy Young, but Gonsolin's ERA is nearly a whole run better. That's a pretty big gap. There's no guarantee Gonsolin wins the NL Cy Young or pitches well the remainder of the season, but putting money on Gonsolin over Alcantara is 100% the right play.  

The Bet: Tony Gonsolin for NL MVP (+450 odds via Caesars)

$100 bet wins $450

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