Properly evaluating trades in Major League Baseball typically takes years, but sometimes early returns can cloud our judgment.
It's only been nine days since the Boston Red Sox traded starting pitcher Quinn Priester to the Milwaukee Brewers, and the early returns have been exasperating to watch from afar. While Red Sox starters have continuously struggled, the 24-year-old Priester has flourished in his new digs.
In two starts with Milwaukee, Priester has pitched 10 innings, struck out eight batters, surrendered seven hits, and allowed only one earned run. Meanwhile, since last Monday, Red Sox starters have allowed 21 earned runs, including 10 by Tanner Houck in his most recent start.
The Brewers are known for unlocking pitchers who were cast away by other organizations. There's a temptation to immediately plunge into a state of regret over Priester's early success. Here's why Red Sox fans shouldn't be doing that.
First, if Priester projected to be a valuable member of this year's Boston pitching staff, he'd still be around. Four Red Sox pitchers have hit the injured list since the start of spring training, yet Priester never managed to wrangle a spot in the Boston rotation.
Priester had a chance to earn a spot in the Red Sox's Opening Day rotation, but lost out not only to Richard Fitts, who is now on the injured list, but lefty Sean Newcomb as well. Newcomb has looked dreadful and probably isn't long for the roster, but there's evidence that Priester wasn't next in line.
When the Red Sox played a doubleheader on Apr. 6, they called up Hunter Dobbins from Triple-A, and Dobbins pitched five solid innings, allowing two earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals. Priester was on only two days' rest, so he wasn't a candidate, but Dobbins had outpitched him all of last season.
Second, the Red Sox got a mammoth return for someone with Priester's track record. Outfielder Yophery Rodriguez has crushed the ball in High-A so far with 11 total bases in five games. Plus, the Red Sox will have the 33rd overall pick in the July draft, where they could easily add another top prospect.
If Priester keeps up this production long enough, perhaps the pitching-needy Red Sox will feel just the smallest twinge of regret for letting him go. But it was a trade a smart front office happily makes every time, and in a few years' time, the Red Sox could be seen as the clear winners of the deal.
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