To say this season has been a disappointment for the Kansas City Royals would be an understatement.
After a looking all but dead in the water after a lackluster first half of the season, they really kicked it into gear in the second half, climbing their way back to a stone’s throw away from the AL wild-card picture only to squander all their hard work with a dreadful two-week stretch.
The offense has looked uninspiring overall, and their pitching staff has been plagued by injuries all season.
However, what’s blossomed from their pitching injury woes has been one of their most pleasant surprises this season: the rise of Noah Cameron.
Originally brought up as an injury replacement for Cole Ragans at the end of April, Cameron made his debut and looked like a seasoned veteran. He’d end up carrying a no-hitter into the seventh inning and ending the night going 6.1 innings surrendering just one hit in his big-league debut.
And from there, he’s only gone on to build upon his stellar start and craft a rookie season for the ages. However, whatever may be the reason, it’s also one that’s somehow flown under the radar compared to other top-notch rookies this season.
Stats were taken prior to play on September 22.
The Royals have found themselves in a precarious situation seemingly all season when it comes to putting an ace on the mound.
As touched upon already, Ragans has battled injury for a majority of the year, only recently returning to the mound after an over three-month stint on the injured list.
Then, their lone All-Star, Kris Bubic, landed on the shelf for the season soon after the second half began. Around that time was also when their Cy Young runner up from a year ago, Seth Lugo, saw his production take a nosedive after signing a pre-trade deadline contract extension.
But while the Royals’ three presumptive ace candidates have been injured or fallen short of expectations, Cameron has emerged as the Royals’ ace in 2025.
In 133.2 innings of work across 23 starts, Cameron has thrown to the tune of a 2.90 ERA to go with a 1.08 WHIP and .213 batting average against (BAA).
Now, looking deeper into the numbers, the underlying metrics don’t exactly paint a complete picture of dominance that a sub-3.00 ERA might traditionally display.
He’s only striking hitters out at a 20.2% clip, which puts him in the 32nd percentile of MLB. Additionally, he only induces chase at a 28.4% clip (48th percentile) while being slightly above average in both generating whiff and limiting walks (61st and 63rd percentile, respectively).
That being said, Cameron’s success stems from his ability to limit hard contact as well as anyone.
Cameron ranks in the 79th percentile in hard-hit rate at 36.7%. Along with that, opponents are only barreling him up 6.0% of the time (83rd percentile), and they’re only mustering a 87.6 mph average exit velocity against him (86th percentile).
Then there’s Cameron’s pitch mix, which is truly a sight to behold as the rookie effectively throws the kitchen sink at his opponents.
He utilizes a five-pitch mix, and each pitch is used at least 14.0% of the time. Each pitch has garnered at minimum respectable results, with a majority of his offerings looking exceptionally excellent:
Pitch Type | Usage Rate | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG |
4-Seam FB | 27.0% | .238 | .289 | .484 | .559 |
Cutter | 21.2% | .273 | .301 | .477 | .488 |
Curveball | 18.8% | .160 | .180 | .198 | .225 |
Changeup | 18.4% | .213 | .247 | .394 | .425 |
Slider | 14.6% | .184 | .208 | .237 | .312 |
All of that is fine and dandy and shows just how meaningful Cameron has been to the Royals in his rookie season, but it doesn’t exactly explain why the rest of the league should take notice.
Among all rookie starters with at least 100 or more innings of work under their belt, Cameron leads the American League in ERA, WHIP and BAA. Then, looking league-wide, his WHIP and BAA lead all rookies under those same parameters, and his ERA trails only the Cubs’ Cade Horton, who could very well be the Rookie of the Year on the NL side.
While he may not be at the same level of dominance as Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, there’s no questioning the fact that Cameron has been the best rookie starting pitcher in the AL, yet he still flies under the radar when it comes to award recognition.
Again, with BetMGM recently pulling the AL Rookie of the Year race off the board with Kurtz the outright favorite, the argument isn’t to say that Cameron should be the winner. However, before the odds closed, Cameron wasn’t even among the top five odds. For a sub-3.00 ERA arm, that seems unjust.
To add further context, it’s not just rookies that Cameron stacks up well against. He’s been statistically one of the better arms in all of baseball.
Amongst all starters with at least 130 innings pitched this season, Cameron sits within the top 20 in ERA (14th), WHIP (T-17th), and BAA (T-15th).
For the purpose of further arguing how underrated Cameron is across the big leagues, let’s stack him up against on of the top names in the AL Cy Young conversation, Max Fried.
The Yankees southpaw has fit in with his new club seamlessly in 2025, which is reflected in the fact that he sits amongst the top five best odds for the AL Cy Young this season, according to BetMGM.
But when you compare the numbers between Cameron and Fried, they are actually in favor of the Royals’ rookie, who outpaces Fried in each major category this season:
Name | IP | ERA | WHIP | BAA |
Max Fried | 188.1 | 2.92 | 1.11 | .224 |
Noah Cameron | 133.2 | 2.90 | 1.08 | .213 |
Now, as touched upon in the Rookie of the Year conversation, this isn’t a plea for Cameron to walk away with the award, as Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet seem like the worthy recipients. This is just meant to highlight that Cameron is in the midst of a special season that needs more appreciation across Major League Baseball.
The Royals may not have thought Cameron would be a key part of this team’s long-term future when the season started, but now there’s reason to believe that he can be a fixture in this rotation for years to come.
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