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Nolan Arenado Trade Fantasy Impact

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Rick Wolf | Last updated Jan 13, 2026 4:38 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks have just made a big move by acquiring eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove third basemanNolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. The Diamondbacks sent right-handed pitching prospect Jack Martinez to St. Louis. The Diamondbacks get a real bargain as they only pay $5 million in 2026 and $6m in 2027 to complete the current contract.

Nolan Arenado breaks literally Rule 1 of the Rules of Engagement found in the SMART System. He will not be a target for anyone using that system, but we do need to understand at what level would he becomes such a big bargain that we cannot help but grab him.

Nolan Arenado Then and Now

Arenado, now 35, starting his 12th major league season, has been one of the most consistent and elite third basemen in baseball over the past decade. At that age, there is regression all the way around. After 32, it is rare for players to hit home runs at the same pace as they did when they are younger. Not everyone can be Nelson Cruz who hit 35+ home runs each year from 33 to 38 years old.

Why the Diamondbacks Move Matters to Fantasy Players

Nolan Arenado is losing power, and has been playing in the fourth worst ballpark for right-handed home run hitters. So even though Chase Field is a bad place for right-handed home run power at -13% compared to average, Busch Stadium was worse at -19%.

In fantasy baseball, you don’t receive points for defense. Arenado is a great defender, leading the league twice in his 11 years and has a career .973 fielding percentage. Last year, he batted only .237 but he had a .241 BABIP meaning that he was unlucky. His batting average should be in the 260s.

A change of scenery may help Nolan Arenado’s batting average, but power upside remains limited.© Eakin Howard-Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks have a strong top of the lineup so they can focus a bit on defense. In order for this move to pay off, the Diamondbacks will have to have Blaze Alexander and Jordan Lawler come forward a couple of steps. They will need Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo to have huge seasons plus Corbin Carroll hit with more power. If Corbin Carroll can hit 30+ home runs again, the Diamondbacks can compete in the NL West, even with the Dodgers.

As for Arenado, he will bat low down in the order and not be a target for any fantasy player. If Arenado ends up on your team, you might have missed out on Jose Ramirez, Junior Caminero, Eugenio Suarez, Austin Riley, Manny Machado and at least seven other third basemen.

Right now, my friends would say … "tell me how you really feel about him.”

Say No To Drugs ... and Arenado

Do not target Nolan Arenado. Upside is more necessary and he does not have a lot of upside. If you are targeting him, see the headline and stop doing drugs.

Nolan Arenado’s move to the Diamondbacks bumps him slightly so expect a return to 2024 with a couple more home runs. Let’s be generous and give him 20. With a .265 batting average, 70 RBI and 70 runs scored, it makes him a very average player. Don’t spend more than $10 in an NL only Rotisserie league and don’t draft him in mixed leagues until the very end.

People Also Ask

How does Nolan Arenado’s trade affect his fantasy value?
It depends on bounce-back play and lineup position with the D-backs.

Should you draft Arenado early in 2026?
Target him based on power potential and third base scarcity.

Does this trade make the Diamondbacks better?
Veteran presence improves lineup depth; playoff odds may rise.

Which third basemen rise with Arenado’s move?
Look at NL West hitters who benefit from lineup protection.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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