One Mets Prediction That Will Alter the Rotation

Manaea's second start of the spring was concerning on Thursday. His fastball averaged 89 mph across 2.2 innings where he gave up three runs on six hits. Along with the fastball velocity being down from 91 mph last season, Manaea's changeup averaged 82.8 mph (84.7 mph in 2025) and his sweeper 76.8 mph (77.7 mph in '25). In his first spring start, Manaea's fastball averaged just 88.6 mph.

Following the game, Manaea told reporters that he isn't worried by his lower velocity and believes it will increase with the adrenaline of big-league games.

Manaea went 2-4 with a 5.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 75 strikeouts and a -0.4 bWAR in 15 appearances and 12 starts last season. Injuries limited Manaea to just 60.2 innings, first an oblique strain then a loose body in his pitching elbow.

But the bigger concern is that Manaea never had surgery to remove the loose body from his left elbow. It's certainly possible that this issue is still hindering him.

Manaea also changed his arm angle again for the third straight season. He found success with a lower angle in 2024, where he averaged 92.2 mph on his fastball and compiled a 12-6 record, 3.47 ERA and 3.0 bWAR in 32 starts with the Mets. In 2025, Manaea's arm angle was too low and now he's trying to get it back to where it was in '24.

Looking Ahead

Manaea signed a three-year, $75 million deal with the Mets last offseason. The southpaw has been a disappointment so far and his spring performance is putting his rotation job in jeopardy.

Don't expect Manaea to be in the starting rotation for very long to open the season. Should he continue on this downward trend, the lefty will be moved to the bullpen soon enough.

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