One National League team from each division with more to gain than lose

We already selected the Red Sox, Tigers and Rangers as the American League franchises with more to gain than lose in 2024. Now we move on to a trio of NL teams predicted by PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) to finish no better than third in their respective divisions. 

NL EAST: Miami Marlins (PECOTA projection: fourth, 79.8 wins)

PECOTA predicted a fourth-place finish for the Marlins in 2023. Instead, they claimed third and earned a postseason berth. Expectations in 2024 are about the same.

Miami's starting rotation won't include 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, but it still has five talented pitchers all under age 27. The right-handed Alcantara will miss all of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. 

Right fielder Jorge Soler and his team-high 36 homers are now in San Francisco. So the power must come from players such as DH Avisail Garcia, who must stay healthy and regain his 2021 form (29 HR, 86 RBI), and OF Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has been injury-prone for his entire career.

Fortunately for the Marlins, they still have second baseman Luis Arraez. Last season, he became the first player in the modern era to claim consecutive batting titles in two different leagues.

Bottom line: The Marlins aren't scary on paper, but they are once again capable of making a surprise playoff appearance.  

NL CENTRAL: Milwaukee Brewers (PECOTA projection: third, 79.4 wins)

Milwaukee won the NL Central by nine games last season before being swept at home in the wild-card round by the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

Brewers pitching led the majors in 2023 with a 3.71 ERA, but they no longer have the dynamic duo of Corbin Burnes (traded to the Orioles) and Brandon Woodruff (re-signed, but out for 2024 after shoulder surgery). Freddy Peralta is expected to carry the staff after going 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA and 210 strikeouts last year. With veterans Wade Miley and Jakob Junis penciled in behind Peralta, the rest of the rotation is questionable. 

The bullpen, though, should be stellar. It returns virtually the same corps that had the second-best reliever ERA in MLB. Devin Williams, who had 36 saves and 87 punchouts over 58.2 frames in 2023, is the headliner. 

Former Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins signed a two-year deal in January after missing 2023 with a torn ACL. Rhys hit 30 homers in 2022 and his bat could be a huge plus.

Bottom line: If left fielder Christian Yelich gets close to his 2018-19 form and top prospect, outfielder Jackson Chourio, makes an immediate impact, Milwaukee could surprise many by repeating as division champs.

NL WEST: San Diego Padres (PECOTA projection: fourth, 80.6 wins)

Some predicted the Padres to challenge the Dodgers for the NL West crown last season. Instead, San Diego finished 18 games out of first and missed the playoffs despite having MLB's second-lowest ERA.

After saying goodbye to their best hitter (Juan Soto, traded to Yankees), top starting pitcher (Blake Snell, unsigned) and leading reliever (Josh Hader, signed by Astros), the expectations are understandably low. Third baseman Manny Machado might begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery and there's also a new manager, Mike Shildt.

The top five in the batting order should be fine if right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. and first baseman Jake Cronenworth improve on their 2023 numbers.  However, the bottom half of the lineup is questionable.

Starting pitchers Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish form a solid one-two punch. The rest of the rotation could be filled by three newcomers who came from the Yankees via the Soto trade.  How many combined innings Michael King, Randy Vasquez and Jhony Brito throw this season is potentially a concern.

Bottom line: Last year was a resounding failure. If San Diego can improve on its league-worst 2-12 extra-innings record, a second-place finish isn't out of the question.