Orioles Appear To Have Dodged Major Bullet Moving On From Ace in Free Agency

The Baltimore Orioles received a lot of criticism for how they handled things with their ace, Corbin Burnes, in free agency.

From the sounds of it, they weren’t overly aggressive in attempting to retain him. As a result, he departed this past winter, agreeing to a six-year, $210 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

It was a massive blow to their starting rotation, which was lacking a bona fide ace. Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin were going to have to step up in his place and to this point, that duo has combined to make three starts, all by Eflin.

To say things haven’t panned out for the Orioles to this point would be an understatement.

They have one of the worst starting rotations in baseball and their organizational philosophy of emphasizing control and location over raw stuff is outdated. It is going to take more than one season to truly turn things around on the mound.

However, they look like they may have been onto something by not pursuing Burnes as heavily as many felt that they should.

How Bad Has Corbin Burnes Been to Start the MLB Season?

He has had a solid start to his tenure with the Diamondbacks, going 1-1 through six starts with a 3.58 ERA. However, there are some concerning trends developing in the first year of the deal that could make Baltimore fans feel as if their team dodged a bullet.

When looking at his stat line, the drop off in strikeouts is alarming.

He has 28 thus far, which is a 7.7 K/9. If that number holds, it will be the fifth consecutive year that he has seen a decrease. This is a pitcher who recorded 200+ strikeouts from 2021-2023 and a K/9 in double digits from 2019-2022.

His walk rate has also been incredibly high thus far in 2025. Burnes has already issued 17, resulting in an ugly 4.7 BB/9 ratio. That would be by far the highest of his career in a single season.

Some of that could certainly be attributed to the shoulder fatigue that he has been battling through this season. His last start came on April 30 as the team opted to skip the following one, putting him on track to return the mound on May 10.

Burnes has been incredibly durable in his career, but shoulder fatigue this early in a campaign is certainly a cause for concern.

On top of that, his stuff with Arizona hasn’t been anywhere near the level it was during his one year with Baltimore.

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), Burnes has seen one of the largest decreases in Stuff+ amongst pitchers who didn’t have a role change and have thrown at least 10 innings this season.

It was at 113 in 2024 and has plummeted to 102. Only Kodai Senga of the New York Mets and Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers have seen bigger drop-offs, both sitting at -12.

With these concerning developments in the first year of a six-year deal, the Orioles very well could have dodged a bullet not committing long-term to Burnes.