Orioles’ Vision for 2026 Unclear Following Sell-Off

This trade deadline was a tough one to stomach for the Baltimore Orioles. After an arduous rebuild, they weren’t supposed to already be back in last place in the AL East.

Baltimore started the season with the sixth-best odds to win the World Series, per BetMGM. Despite their forecasted success, the Orioles found themselves at 50-59 entering the trade deadline on July 31.

Many were putting faith in a projected juggernaut offense to carry the team back to another 90-win season. Unfortunately, that offense saw many of its players spend time on the injured list at some point in the first half.

In a big four-game set leading up to the deadline, the Orioles’ offense was finally healthy, and they outscored the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays, 38-19. Even though the bats were clicking, the Orioles were still playoff longshots.

General manager Mike Elias knew that the hot streak wasn’t enough to entertain buying:

We were in a position to have to sell because of a very disappointing first half for this team. I’ve spoken about it. This is not how we envisioned this season going, and it’s something we’re taking a hard look in the mirror about how we got here. I think a lot of it was bad luck, but there’s also stuff we need to improve on as an organization and we’re going to do that.

Elias was true to his word and sold as many assets that he deemed not a part of the team’s future core as possible. Most of the players moved were rentals, but there were a couple that the team could have controlled in 2026.

When the dust settled, Baltimore had traded hitters Ryan O’Hearn, Ramón Laureano, Cedric Mullins, and Ramón Urías, as well as starting pitcher Charlie Morton, and relievers Bryan Baker, Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Kittredge, and Gregory Soto. Those players combined for a total of 8.4 fWAR in orange and black this season.

In return for all of those big leaguers, the Orioles added a league-high 16 minor leaguers to their system. None of them rank as top 100 overall prospects, per Just Baseball, but the organization wanted to get the most upside.

Having to sell at the trade deadline this year caused many to question Elias, especially since these moves didn’t seem to help the current major league club. Let’s explore different perspectives on how this deadline was approached and reach a conclusion.

The Elias Defender’s Perspective

The optimist knows this is a good team, but 2025 isn’t the Orioles’ year. The majority of the players who were moved were pure rentals, who can still be re-signed in the offseason. Those who weren’t — Laureano, Urías, Kittredge — all have just one extra year of control.

Sure, moving the team’s two best hitters by wRC+, O’Hearn and Laureano, isn’t going to help the team win. Laureano was good this year and has a cheap club option for next, so trading him was surely a tough call. But, by packaging two of the team’s most impactful hitters, Elias was able to secure a large, six-player return headlined by Cobb Hightower (Just Baseball’s No. 3 Padres Prospect) and Boston Bateman (No. 7).

A critique of this deadline is that while the Orioles acquired 16 minor league players, none project to make an impact next season. However, Elias himself said that the most easily obtainable players with the highest ceilings are in the lower levels of the minors:

Let’s get the most talent back. Let’s extract the most that we can for the organization. And yeah, a lot of the players that we got back were in the lower part of the minor leagues, but you can use that to trade for the near term. And also, it could pay off in the long run.

Clearly, in that quote, Elias is saying that he’s planning to explore other avenues to acquire major league talent. He got many well-regarded prospects, particularly on the pitching side, that can be used to trade for major leaguers.

Elias built this team from the ground up. He believes in this core and wants to win. The Orioles won 101 games in 2023 and 91 games in 2024. Sure, they had to sell — but when the Orioles buy, which they should, they have much more talent to offer in a trade.

Elias did nothing irrational to damage future Oriole teams, the optimist says. The front office got what they thought was the best return they could. It’s responsible management, and the organization is in a better place than it was.

The Elias Skeptic’s Perspective

Many Orioles fans have become Elias skeptics. While they acknowledge that he did a good job building a core of good, young hitters, they find that Elias might not be the best general manager to take this team to the World Series.

The skeptic says that the Orioles did nothing to address the 2026 season, when 2025 was already a failure. Gunnar Henderson won’t be around forever, and there’s no guarantee that any of these new 19-year-olds will be as good. This Orioles team has a talented lineup right now, and they need help.

Sure, Elias traded for players mostly in A-ball because they were the best values. That’s great, but did every trade have to be for such young players? Why couldn’t Elias get a player in closer proximity to the major leagues in a couple of trades? The skeptic can’t help but cringe at this Elias quote:

If you were to go to the market and say, “I only want players that are ready in 2025 or 2026,” first of all, the teams you’re dealing with by nature are contending and worrying about their major league depth. So, they’re not going to want to put these players available as easily. And second of all, you’re going to get less talent, less value in return in those confines.

The skeptic can’t help but wonder why one or two of the trades couldn’t have included a potential 2026 rotation option. Elias acquired 16 young players, and none had even made it to Triple-A for more than a few games. What’s so bad about getting a couple of players that are close to impacting the major leagues, especially when your many high-ceiling guys could very well be busts?

The pitching staff for the remainder of this season is so far from that of a winning team, and it already was bad. How could he have thought that this pitching staff would be a good one to begin with? Not to mention, there’s not enough help on the books for 2026.

Elias has only given out one guaranteed multi-year contract, and it was to Tyler O’Neill. Why should Orioles fans believe that Elias will truly push the chips in, especially when teams will be just as reluctant to trade impact arms at the Winter Meetings? This team needs better pitchers if they are going to compete, and Elias needs to acquire them.

We are sorry that 2025 has gone this way. A lot had to go wrong, and it has.

Spare the skeptic the apologies. Seriously invest into the 2026 team this offseason, or bring in someone else that will.

The Author’s Perspective

As with many debates, those on the two extremes make their voices heard the loudest. But, in reality, many find their opinion to be somewhere in the middle, like me.

I can appreciate that Elias wanted to get as many potentially impactful pitchers as possible, even if they are young. I can also understand that Elias hoped to strengthen the farm system’s depth, given that it was starting to look weaker.

The Orioles, as an organization, need talented pitching. But isn’t that a result of Elias completely ignoring pitching in the first few rounds of the draft throughout his tenure?

If Elias wasn’t going to draft highly-touted pitching, and he wasn’t going to sign talented pitching, where did he think it was going to come from? The lack of pitching depth as an organization entering this deadline is entirely his fault.

Now that he has talented pitchers that other organizations have developed, let’s see if any of them are in the Orioles’ rotation in a few years.

I think a lot of my skepticism surrounding Elias’ claims of making big moves this offseason is that he doesn’t typically swing big. Sure, the Corbin Burnes trade was a good one. But let’s be honest, did he have to give up anything of real value?

Joey Ortiz was never projected to be an everyday starter on this team, and DL Hall already looked like he was going to be a reliever. The Brewers were willing to trade their rental ace for the excess Orioles prospects.

Outside of that move, pretty much all of Elias’ other trades and signings have been fringy moves, for better or worse. Is he actually going to trade some of these prospects this offseason for real impact players to make the Orioles competitors again in 2026? Honestly, I have my doubts.

That is exactly why it’s so hard to feel great about Elias’ returns at this trade deadline. In his press conference, he spoke like everyone should believe it’s so obvious that he’s going to buy into this group for 2026, when he’s never really done that. He did a nice job of drafting good hitters during the rebuild, but when does he want to commit to a real winning window?

It feels more likely that the 2026 Orioles win fewer than 80 games right now than more than 90, based on the state of this pitching staff.

Sure, Kyle Bradish will be back from Tommy John surgery, but can you expect him to be an ace right away? I wouldn’t bet on it. Grayson Rodriguez might be healthy again next season, but can you expect him to throw 150 innings? I wouldn’t, he hasn’t pitched in 13 months and isn’t close to a return.

Realistically, if the Orioles want to have a real shot of winning a World Series, they need an ace, a No. 2 or No. 3 starting pitcher, and at least three more solid bullpen arms that aren’t currently in the organization. What has Elias done previously to make me feel confident that this pitching staff will get the talent it needs?

The answer is, not much. That’s why, as a longtime Elias defender, I’m starting to drift a little closer to the skeptic side. It seems clear to me that there should be more money invested in the team’s payroll, but it hasn’t happened. There have yet to be actions that clearly demonstrate Elias wanting to build a team better than just a pretty good one that turns a nice profit.