Our best bet for Yankees vs. Padres for Saturday night

Blue Jays vs. Tigers

Saturday, May 25, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network
Tigers Moneyline (-102, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Right-hander José Berríos is slated to take the mound for Toronto, and he should be on fade-watch moving forward. His stats this season are fantastic: a 5-3 record, 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.

However, his underlying metrics suggest steep regression is looming, as Berríos ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. This expected regression could come to fruition against Detroit, a team he possesses a 4.48 ERA against through 14 career meetings.

On the other hand, right-hander Reese Olson clears Berríos across the board, ranking higher than him in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Not only do the Tigers possess the starting pitching advantage, but they also boast the better bullpen and a lineup that is only marginally worse than Toronto's.

Add in home-field advantage to this equation, and I think the value in this game is on Detroit at -102.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)

Astros vs. Athletics

Saturday, May 25, 4:07 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
F5 Over 4.5 (-114, BetRivers)

By Brad Cunningham

Spencer Arrighetti has a very interesting profile as a pitcher; he has good stuff but might have some of the worst command among MLB starting pitchers. He does have an ERA over seven and even though his expected ERA is closer to five, he has the 14th-highest walk rate among MLB starting pitchers, which is a real problem.

The A's are surprisingly a pretty good offense against right-handed pitching. They got two runs off Arrighetti a little over 10 days ago and for the season have a 104 wRC+ against righties, which is 11th in baseball. Not to mention, they have a .371 xwOBA against right-handed fastballs and cutters (fifth best in MLB).

JP Sears has been a below-average starting pitcher this season, and the way he pitches is going to lead to some trouble Saturday. Sears likes to utilize his sweeper and fastball in the middle to upper part of up the zone to generate a high number of fly balls. He's in the 92nd percentile for percentage of sweepers in the middle of the strike zone, which is always a dangerous game to play.

Not to mention, Houston has been on a tear offensively lately. They have a .340 wOBA over the last 30 days and are top five in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

I have 5.1 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 4.5 runs at -114.

Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-114)

Yankees vs. Padres

Saturday, May 25, 9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Padres Moneyline (-118, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Dylan Cease has benefitted from the change in scenery. He is walking fewer hitters for the Padres than he did in Chicago for the White Sox, his strikeout rate is 31.3%, and his chase rate is well above average. Yes, he struggles with hard contact, but all in all his 3.05 ERA and 3.14 xERA will suffice as the Padres' ace.

Cease’s opponent will be Marcus Stroman and the New York Yankees. Stroman is a ground-ball pitcher with a ground-ball rate in the 89th percentile. That said, that is his only saving grace. His Hard-Hit Rate is above the 50th percentile, but there is a reason his 3.05 ERA may not be sustainable against a 4.62 xERA. Stroman’s walk rate is 11%. He is just asking for teams to score on him.

The Padres can score on him, too. Although their walk rate is under 8% in the last month, the Padres own a sub-19% strikeout rate and a wRC+ of 125 against righties.

But the Yankees can also hit righties. Their wRC+ is 142 with a walk rate over 9% and strikeout rate under 19%.

That said, the Padres are clearly facing the weaker pitcher.

In relief, San Diego has been better too. The Padres have a collective 3.53 xFIP against New York’s 3.80 bullpen xFIP.

This mainly comes down to the major discrepancy between the starters. Cease is expected to be as good as his results have been lately. Stroman will regress soon, as he did down the stretch in 2023.

Pick: Padres Moneyline (-118 | Play to -135)